Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: R. Schroder
Goals
57%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.201.323.52safe1.24–3.160.46–2.181.70–5.34safer0.98–3.420.21–2.421.19–5.85actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
72%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.464.1110.57safe4.61–8.322.40–5.827.01–14.14safer4.11–8.821.93–6.296.04–15.10actual6.003.009.00
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7311.0425.77safe11.02–18.437.66–14.4218.69–32.85safer9.99–19.466.73–15.3516.72–34.81actual18.0012.0030.00
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction11.136.8618.00safe8.62–13.654.56–9.1713.18–22.82safer7.75–14.523.77–9.9611.52–24.48actual14.007.0021.00
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.942.906.85safe2.36–5.531.49–4.323.85–9.85safer1.83–6.061.00–4.802.83–10.87actual1.003.004.00
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.694.219.90safe3.49–7.902.23–6.185.71–14.08safer2.89–8.491.69–6.724.58–15.21actual9.006.0015.00
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction55.4743.62safe49.15–61.7937.30–49.94safer47.56–63.3835.70–51.53actual51.0049.00
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction556419975safe491–621354–483845–1104safer473–639337–501809–1140actual484470954
Pass accuracy %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction81.7977.06safe77.57–86.0072.55–81.56safer76.27–87.3171.22–82.89
Fouls
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6011.4822.08safe7.75–13.468.53–14.4316.28–27.89safer6.86–14.357.62–15.3414.48–29.69actual14.008.0022.00
Offsides
71%
14%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction3.361.614.97safe2.15–4.570.45–2.772.60–7.34safer1.81–4.910.11–3.101.92–8.02actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.204.10safe0.85–2.961.08–3.321.93–6.28safer0.58–3.230.79–3.611.37–6.84actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
34%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.793.266.05safe1.38–4.201.70–4.813.08–9.02safer0.99–4.591.27–5.242.26–9.84actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.20 1.24–3.16 0.98–3.42 | 2.00 | 1.32 0.46–2.18 0.21–2.42 | 0.00 | 3.52 1.70–5.34 1.19–5.85 | 2.00 | 57% 20% 22% |
| Shots on target | 6.46 4.61–8.32 4.11–8.82 | 6.00 | 4.11 2.40–5.82 1.93–6.29 | 3.00 | 10.57 7.01–14.14 6.04–15.10 | 9.00 | 72% 19% |
| Total shots | 14.73 11.02–18.43 9.99–19.46 | 18.00 | 11.04 7.66–14.42 6.73–15.35 | 12.00 | 25.77 18.69–32.85 16.72–34.81 | 30.00 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 11.13 8.62–13.65 7.75–14.52 | 14.00 | 6.86 4.56–9.17 3.77–9.96 | 7.00 | 18.00 13.18–22.82 11.52–24.48 | 21.00 | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 3.94 2.36–5.53 1.83–6.06 | 1.00 | 2.90 1.49–4.32 1.00–4.80 | 3.00 | 6.85 3.85–9.85 2.83–10.87 | 4.00 | 58% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 5.69 3.49–7.90 2.89–8.49 | 9.00 | 4.21 2.23–6.18 1.69–6.72 | 6.00 | 9.90 5.71–14.08 4.58–15.21 | 15.00 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 55.47 49.15–61.79 47.56–63.38 | 51.00 | 43.62 37.30–49.94 35.70–51.53 | 49.00 | — | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 556 491–621 473–639 | 484 | 419 354–483 337–501 | 470 | 975 845–1104 809–1140 | 954 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.79 77.57–86.00 76.27–87.31 | — | 77.06 72.55–81.56 71.22–82.89 | — | — | — | 70% 26% |
| Fouls | 10.60 7.75–13.46 6.86–14.35 | 14.00 | 11.48 8.53–14.43 7.62–15.34 | 8.00 | 22.08 16.28–27.89 14.48–29.69 | 22.00 | 38% 53% |
| Offsides | 3.36 2.15–4.57 1.81–4.91 | 1.00 | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.11–3.10 | 1.00 | 4.97 2.60–7.34 1.92–8.02 | 2.00 | 71% 14% 15% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.96 0.58–3.23 | 2.00 | 2.20 1.08–3.32 0.79–3.61 | 3.00 | 4.10 1.93–6.28 1.37–6.84 | 5.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.38–4.20 0.99–4.59 | 3.00 | 3.26 1.70–4.81 1.27–5.24 | 4.00 | 6.05 3.08–9.02 2.26–9.84 | 7.00 | 34% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.