Bundesliga·Regular Season - 11·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.503.11safe0.65–2.580.64–2.351.29–4.94safer0.40–2.830.42–2.580.81–5.42
Shots on target
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.665.1010.76safe3.80–7.523.36–6.857.16–14.37safer3.31–8.012.90–7.316.20–15.32
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5513.6329.18safe11.63–19.4710.07–17.2021.69–36.67safer10.53–20.579.11–18.1519.64–38.72
Shots in box
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction9.799.6919.48safe6.84–12.737.01–12.3813.86–25.10safer6.02–13.566.28–13.1112.29–26.67
Blocked shots
57%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.473.487.95safe2.59–6.351.83–5.144.42–11.49safer2.04–6.901.34–5.633.38–12.52
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.765.1410.90safe3.54–7.973.14–7.146.69–15.11safer2.97–8.542.61–7.685.58–16.22
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction54.0746.05safe47.28–60.8639.26–52.83safer45.61–62.5337.59–54.50
Passes
73%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction495421916safe427–562355–488782–1050safer409–580337–505747–1085
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction67.5968.80safe63.56–71.6264.47–73.12safer62.27–72.9163.16–74.43
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7111.5422.25safe7.88–13.558.60–14.4916.47–28.04safer7.12–14.317.85–15.2314.97–29.54
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.994.01safe0.85–3.170.90–3.091.75–6.26safer0.55–3.470.61–3.381.16–6.85
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.562.113.67safe0.51–2.610.98–3.241.49–5.85safer0.25–2.880.69–3.530.94–6.41
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
36%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.153.596.74safe1.72–4.592.03–5.143.75–9.73safer1.33–4.981.60–5.572.94–10.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 0.65–2.58 0.40–2.83 | 1.50 0.64–2.35 0.42–2.58 | 3.11 1.29–4.94 0.81–5.42 | 41% 24% 36% |
| Shots on target | 5.66 3.80–7.52 3.31–8.01 | 5.10 3.36–6.85 2.90–7.31 | 10.76 7.16–14.37 6.20–15.32 | 51% 37% |
| Total shots | 15.55 11.63–19.47 10.53–20.57 | 13.63 10.07–17.20 9.11–18.15 | 29.18 21.69–36.67 19.64–38.72 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.79 6.84–12.73 6.02–13.56 | 9.69 7.01–12.38 6.28–13.11 | 19.48 13.86–25.10 12.29–26.67 | 46% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 4.47 2.59–6.35 2.04–6.90 | 3.48 1.83–5.14 1.34–5.63 | 7.95 4.42–11.49 3.38–12.52 | 57% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 5.76 3.54–7.97 2.97–8.54 | 5.14 3.14–7.14 2.61–7.68 | 10.90 6.69–15.11 5.58–16.22 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 54.07 47.28–60.86 45.61–62.53 | 46.05 39.26–52.83 37.59–54.50 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 495 427–562 409–580 | 421 355–488 337–505 | 916 782–1050 747–1085 | 73% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.59 63.56–71.62 62.27–72.91 | 68.80 64.47–73.12 63.16–74.43 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 10.71 7.88–13.55 7.12–14.31 | 11.54 8.60–14.49 7.85–15.23 | 22.25 16.47–28.04 14.97–29.54 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.01 0.85–3.17 0.55–3.47 | 1.99 0.90–3.09 0.61–3.38 | 4.01 1.75–6.26 1.16–6.85 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.61 0.25–2.88 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 3.67 1.49–5.85 0.94–6.41 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.15 1.72–4.59 1.33–4.98 | 3.59 2.03–5.14 1.60–5.57 | 6.74 3.75–9.73 2.94–10.54 | 36% 15% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.