Bundesliga·Regular Season - 14·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
23%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.393.15safe0.79–2.720.54–2.251.33–4.97safer0.54–2.980.31–2.470.85–5.45
Shots on target
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.634.8810.51safe3.77–7.493.14–6.626.90–14.11safer3.28–7.982.67–7.095.95–15.07
Total shots
65%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction16.4913.9330.42safe12.57–20.4210.36–17.4922.93–37.91safer11.48–21.519.40–18.4520.88–39.96
Shots in box
63%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction10.878.9419.81safe7.93–13.816.26–11.6214.19–25.44safer7.10–14.645.52–12.3612.62–27.00
Blocked shots
56%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.433.517.94safe2.54–6.311.86–5.174.40–11.48safer2.00–6.851.37–5.663.37–12.51
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.894.9510.84safe3.68–8.112.95–6.956.63–15.05safer3.11–8.682.41–7.485.52–16.16
Possession %
43%
53%
homeawayprediction49.2051.38safe42.41–55.9944.60–58.17safer40.74–57.6642.92–59.84
Passes
53%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction449441891safe382–517375–508757–1024safer364–535357–525721–1060
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction67.8372.34safe63.80–71.8668.02–76.66safer62.51–73.1566.71–77.97
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5211.4822.99safe8.68–14.368.53–14.4217.21–28.78safer7.93–15.117.78–15.1715.71–30.28
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.793.82safe0.87–3.190.70–2.891.57–6.08safer0.57–3.490.41–3.170.98–6.67
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.923.45safe0.49–2.580.79–3.051.28–5.63safer0.22–2.850.50–3.340.72–6.19
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
35%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.223.716.93safe1.79–4.662.15–5.263.94–9.92safer1.40–5.051.72–5.693.12–10.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.79–2.72 0.54–2.98 | 1.39 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.47 | 3.15 1.33–4.97 0.85–5.45 | 46% 23% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.63 3.77–7.49 3.28–7.98 | 4.88 3.14–6.62 2.67–7.09 | 10.51 6.90–14.11 5.95–15.07 | 53% 35% |
| Total shots | 16.49 12.57–20.42 11.48–21.51 | 13.93 10.36–17.49 9.40–18.45 | 30.42 22.93–37.91 20.88–39.96 | 65% 29% |
| Shots in box | 10.87 7.93–13.81 7.10–14.64 | 8.94 6.26–11.62 5.52–12.36 | 19.81 14.19–25.44 12.62–27.00 | 63% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 4.43 2.54–6.31 2.00–6.85 | 3.51 1.86–5.17 1.37–5.66 | 7.94 4.40–11.48 3.37–12.51 | 56% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 5.89 3.68–8.11 3.11–8.68 | 4.95 2.95–6.95 2.41–7.48 | 10.84 6.63–15.05 5.52–16.16 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 49.20 42.41–55.99 40.74–57.66 | 51.38 44.60–58.17 42.92–59.84 | — | 43% 53% |
| Passes | 449 382–517 364–535 | 441 375–508 357–525 | 891 757–1024 721–1060 | 53% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.83 63.80–71.86 62.51–73.15 | 72.34 68.02–76.66 66.71–77.97 | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 11.52 8.68–14.36 7.93–15.11 | 11.48 8.53–14.42 7.78–15.17 | 22.99 17.21–28.78 15.71–30.28 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.57–3.49 | 1.79 0.70–2.89 0.41–3.17 | 3.82 1.57–6.08 0.98–6.67 | 44% 21% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.49–2.58 0.22–2.85 | 1.92 0.79–3.05 0.50–3.34 | 3.45 1.28–5.63 0.72–6.19 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.22 1.79–4.66 1.40–5.05 | 3.71 2.15–5.26 1.72–5.69 | 6.93 3.94–9.92 3.12–10.73 | 35% 15% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.