Bundesliga·Regular Season - 14·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.653.35safe0.74–2.680.79–2.501.53–5.18safer0.49–2.930.56–2.731.05–5.66
Shots on target
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.284.7710.06safe3.42–7.153.03–6.526.45–13.66safer2.93–7.632.56–6.985.49–14.62
Total shots
53%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2913.4427.73safe10.36–18.219.88–17.0120.24–35.22safer9.27–19.308.92–17.9718.19–37.27
Shots in box
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction9.829.5419.36safe6.88–12.776.85–12.2213.74–24.98safer6.05–13.606.12–12.9512.17–26.55
Blocked shots
49%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.973.547.51safe2.09–5.851.89–5.203.97–11.05safer1.54–6.391.40–5.692.94–12.08
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.385.0910.47safe3.16–7.593.09–7.096.26–14.68safer2.59–8.162.56–7.625.15–15.79
Possession %
45%
51%
homeawayprediction49.9651.30safe43.17–56.7544.51–58.08safer41.50–58.4242.84–59.76
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction444456901safe377–512390–523767–1034safer359–530372–540731–1070
Pass accuracy %
26%
69%
homeawayprediction65.3869.78safe61.35–69.4165.46–74.10safer60.06–70.7064.15–75.41
Fouls
26%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1712.6822.85safe7.33–13.019.74–15.6317.07–28.63safer6.58–13.768.99–16.3715.56–30.14
Offsides
25%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.472.203.67safe0.31–2.631.11–3.301.42–5.93safer0.01–2.930.82–3.580.83–6.52
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.572.163.73safe0.52–2.621.03–3.291.55–5.90safer0.25–2.880.74–3.580.99–6.46
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
35%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.133.626.76safe1.70–4.572.07–5.183.77–9.75safer1.31–4.961.64–5.612.95–10.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.71 0.74–2.68 0.49–2.93 | 1.65 0.79–2.50 0.56–2.73 | 3.35 1.53–5.18 1.05–5.66 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Shots on target | 5.28 3.42–7.15 2.93–7.63 | 4.77 3.03–6.52 2.56–6.98 | 10.06 6.45–13.66 5.49–14.62 | 50% 37% |
| Total shots | 14.29 10.36–18.21 9.27–19.30 | 13.44 9.88–17.01 8.92–17.97 | 27.73 20.24–35.22 18.19–37.27 | 53% 40% |
| Shots in box | 9.82 6.88–12.77 6.05–13.60 | 9.54 6.85–12.22 6.12–12.95 | 19.36 13.74–24.98 12.17–26.55 | 48% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.97 2.09–5.85 1.54–6.39 | 3.54 1.89–5.20 1.40–5.69 | 7.51 3.97–11.05 2.94–12.08 | 49% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.38 3.16–7.59 2.59–8.16 | 5.09 3.09–7.09 2.56–7.62 | 10.47 6.26–14.68 5.15–15.79 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 49.96 43.17–56.75 41.50–58.42 | 51.30 44.51–58.08 42.84–59.76 | — | 45% 51% |
| Passes | 444 377–512 359–530 | 456 390–523 372–540 | 901 767–1034 731–1070 | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.38 61.35–69.41 60.06–70.70 | 69.78 65.46–74.10 64.15–75.41 | — | 26% 69% |
| Fouls | 10.17 7.33–13.01 6.58–13.76 | 12.68 9.74–15.63 8.99–16.37 | 22.85 17.07–28.63 15.56–30.14 | 26% 66% |
| Offsides | 1.47 0.31–2.63 0.01–2.93 | 2.20 1.11–3.30 0.82–3.58 | 3.67 1.42–5.93 0.83–6.52 | 25% 20% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.52–2.62 0.25–2.88 | 2.16 1.03–3.29 0.74–3.58 | 3.73 1.55–5.90 0.99–6.46 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.13 1.70–4.57 1.31–4.96 | 3.62 2.07–5.18 1.64–5.61 | 6.76 3.77–9.75 2.95–10.56 | 35% 15% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.