Bundesliga·Regular Season - 14·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.212.88safe0.70–2.630.36–2.071.06–4.70safer0.45–2.890.13–2.300.58–5.18
Shots on target
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.264.179.43safe3.40–7.122.43–5.925.83–13.04safer2.91–7.611.96–6.384.87–13.99
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction17.0913.3230.40safe13.16–21.019.75–16.8822.91–37.89safer12.07–22.108.79–17.8420.86–39.94
Shots in box
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction10.458.2518.70safe7.51–13.395.57–10.9313.08–24.32safer6.68–14.224.83–11.6711.51–25.89
Blocked shots
56%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.303.357.65safe2.41–6.181.70–5.004.11–11.18safer1.87–6.721.20–5.503.08–12.22
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.494.6310.12safe3.28–7.702.63–6.635.91–14.33safer2.70–8.282.10–7.164.80–15.44
Possession %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction57.4643.50safe50.67–64.2536.71–50.28safer49.00–65.9235.04–51.95
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction527381909safe460–595315–448775–1042safer442–613297–465739–1078
Pass accuracy %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction72.8569.57safe68.82–76.8865.24–73.89safer67.53–78.1763.93–75.20
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5011.7923.29safe8.66–14.348.84–14.7317.50–29.07safer7.91–15.098.09–15.4816.00–30.57
Offsides
24%
20%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.432.253.68safe0.27–2.591.15–3.341.42–5.93safer0.00–2.890.86–3.630.83–6.52
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.873.46safe0.54–2.640.74–3.001.28–5.64safer0.28–2.910.45–3.290.73–6.20
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
28%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.723.636.35safe1.28–4.162.08–5.193.36–9.35safer0.90–4.541.65–5.622.55–10.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.67 0.70–2.63 0.45–2.89 | 1.21 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.58–5.18 | 48% 24% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.26 3.40–7.12 2.91–7.61 | 4.17 2.43–5.92 1.96–6.38 | 9.43 5.83–13.04 4.87–13.99 | 57% 30% |
| Total shots | 17.09 13.16–21.01 12.07–22.10 | 13.32 9.75–16.88 8.79–17.84 | 30.40 22.91–37.89 20.86–39.94 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 10.45 7.51–13.39 6.68–14.22 | 8.25 5.57–10.93 4.83–11.67 | 18.70 13.08–24.32 11.51–25.89 | 65% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 4.30 2.41–6.18 1.87–6.72 | 3.35 1.70–5.00 1.20–5.50 | 7.65 4.11–11.18 3.08–12.22 | 56% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 5.49 3.28–7.70 2.70–8.28 | 4.63 2.63–6.63 2.10–7.16 | 10.12 5.91–14.33 4.80–15.44 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 57.46 50.67–64.25 49.00–65.92 | 43.50 36.71–50.28 35.04–51.95 | — | 78% 19% |
| Passes | 527 460–595 442–613 | 381 315–448 297–465 | 909 775–1042 739–1078 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.85 68.82–76.88 67.53–78.17 | 69.57 65.24–73.89 63.93–75.20 | — | 64% 31% |
| Fouls | 11.50 8.66–14.34 7.91–15.09 | 11.79 8.84–14.73 8.09–15.48 | 23.29 17.50–29.07 16.00–30.57 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.43 0.27–2.59 0.00–2.89 | 2.25 1.15–3.34 0.86–3.63 | 3.68 1.42–5.93 0.83–6.52 | 24% 20% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.64 0.28–2.91 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 3.46 1.28–5.64 0.73–6.20 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.28–4.16 0.90–4.54 | 3.63 2.08–5.19 1.65–5.62 | 6.35 3.36–9.35 2.55–10.16 | 28% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.