Bundesliga·Regular Season - 14·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.042.81safe0.80–2.730.19–1.900.99–4.63safer0.55–2.980.00–2.130.51–5.11
Shots on target
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.333.719.04safe3.47–7.201.96–5.455.44–12.65safer2.98–7.691.50–5.914.48–13.60
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction16.4710.5226.99safe12.54–20.396.96–14.0819.50–34.47safer11.45–21.486.00–15.0417.45–36.52
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction11.256.7317.97safe8.30–14.194.05–9.4112.35–23.60safer7.47–15.023.31–10.1510.78–25.16
Blocked shots
59%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.343.237.57safe2.46–6.221.58–4.894.04–11.11safer1.92–6.771.09–5.383.00–12.15
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.974.2110.18safe3.76–8.182.21–6.215.96–14.39safer3.18–8.761.67–6.744.86–15.50
Possession %
50%
46%
homeawayprediction50.8950.01safe44.10–57.6843.22–56.79safer42.43–59.3541.55–58.46
Passes
52%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction440435875safe373–507369–502742–1009safer355–526351–519706–1045
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction69.8770.44safe65.84–73.9066.12–74.77safer64.55–75.1964.81–76.07
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4610.8722.34safe8.63–14.307.93–13.8216.55–28.12safer7.87–15.067.18–14.5715.05–29.62
Offsides
42%
24%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.453.09safe0.47–2.790.36–2.550.83–5.34safer0.17–3.100.07–2.840.25–5.93
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.063.68safe0.57–2.670.93–3.191.51–5.86safer0.31–2.940.64–3.480.95–6.42
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.563.425.98safe1.13–4.001.86–4.972.99–8.97safer0.74–4.391.44–5.402.18–9.79
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.80–2.73 0.55–2.98 | 1.04 0.19–1.90 0.00–2.13 | 2.81 0.99–4.63 0.51–5.11 | 54% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.33 3.47–7.20 2.98–7.69 | 3.71 1.96–5.45 1.50–5.91 | 9.04 5.44–12.65 4.48–13.60 | 65% 24% |
| Total shots | 16.47 12.54–20.39 11.45–21.48 | 10.52 6.96–14.08 6.00–15.04 | 26.99 19.50–34.47 17.45–36.52 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 11.25 8.30–14.19 7.47–15.02 | 6.73 4.05–9.41 3.31–10.15 | 17.97 12.35–23.60 10.78–25.16 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 4.34 2.46–6.22 1.92–6.77 | 3.23 1.58–4.89 1.09–5.38 | 7.57 4.04–11.11 3.00–12.15 | 59% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 5.97 3.76–8.18 3.18–8.76 | 4.21 2.21–6.21 1.67–6.74 | 10.18 5.96–14.39 4.86–15.50 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 50.89 44.10–57.68 42.43–59.35 | 50.01 43.22–56.79 41.55–58.46 | — | 50% 46% |
| Passes | 440 373–507 355–526 | 435 369–502 351–519 | 875 742–1009 706–1045 | 52% 48% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.87 65.84–73.90 64.55–75.19 | 70.44 66.12–74.77 64.81–76.07 | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 11.46 8.63–14.30 7.87–15.06 | 10.87 7.93–13.82 7.18–14.57 | 22.34 16.55–28.12 15.05–29.62 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.47–2.79 0.17–3.10 | 1.45 0.36–2.55 0.07–2.84 | 3.09 0.83–5.34 0.25–5.93 | 42% 24% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.67 0.31–2.94 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 3.68 1.51–5.86 0.95–6.42 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.56 1.13–4.00 0.74–4.39 | 3.42 1.86–4.97 1.44–5.40 | 5.98 2.99–8.97 2.18–9.79 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+