Bundesliga·Regular Season - 16·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.242.87safe0.66–2.600.39–2.101.05–4.70safer0.41–2.850.16–2.320.57–5.18
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.003.928.93safe3.14–6.872.18–5.675.32–12.53safer2.65–7.361.72–6.134.37–13.49
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9912.3527.34safe11.07–18.918.79–15.9119.85–34.83safer9.97–20.017.83–16.8717.80–36.88
Shots in box
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.537.9518.48safe7.58–13.475.27–10.6312.85–24.10safer6.75–14.304.53–11.3711.29–25.67
Blocked shots
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.844.047.88safe1.96–5.732.39–5.694.35–11.42safer1.42–6.271.90–6.193.31–12.46
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.704.3610.06safe3.48–7.912.36–6.365.85–14.27safer2.91–8.491.83–6.894.74–15.38
Possession %
49%
47%
homeawayprediction50.4750.09safe43.68–57.2643.30–56.87safer42.01–58.9341.63–58.54
Passes
45%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction427443870safe360–494377–510737–1004safer342–513359–527701–1040
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction67.3471.69safe63.31–71.3767.36–76.01safer62.02–72.6766.05–77.32
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4113.0724.48safe8.57–14.2410.13–16.0218.70–30.26safer7.81–15.009.38–16.7717.19–31.77
Offsides
39%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.513.08safe0.41–2.730.42–2.600.83–5.34safer0.11–3.030.13–2.890.24–5.93
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.822.344.16safe0.77–2.871.21–3.471.98–6.34safer0.50–3.130.92–3.761.42–6.89
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.613.245.85safe1.17–4.041.68–4.802.86–8.84safer0.78–4.431.26–5.222.04–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.63 0.66–2.60 0.41–2.85 | 1.24 0.39–2.10 0.16–2.32 | 2.87 1.05–4.70 0.57–5.18 | 47% 24% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.00 3.14–6.87 2.65–7.36 | 3.92 2.18–5.67 1.72–6.13 | 8.93 5.32–12.53 4.37–13.49 | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.99 11.07–18.91 9.97–20.01 | 12.35 8.79–15.91 7.83–16.87 | 27.34 19.85–34.83 17.80–36.88 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 10.53 7.58–13.47 6.75–14.30 | 7.95 5.27–10.63 4.53–11.37 | 18.48 12.85–24.10 11.29–25.67 | 69% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 1.96–5.73 1.42–6.27 | 4.04 2.39–5.69 1.90–6.19 | 7.88 4.35–11.42 3.31–12.46 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Corners | 5.70 3.48–7.91 2.91–8.49 | 4.36 2.36–6.36 1.83–6.89 | 10.06 5.85–14.27 4.74–15.38 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 50.47 43.68–57.26 42.01–58.93 | 50.09 43.30–56.87 41.63–58.54 | — | 49% 47% |
| Passes | 427 360–494 342–513 | 443 377–510 359–527 | 870 737–1004 701–1040 | 45% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.34 63.31–71.37 62.02–72.67 | 71.69 67.36–76.01 66.05–77.32 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 11.41 8.57–14.24 7.81–15.00 | 13.07 10.13–16.02 9.38–16.77 | 24.48 18.70–30.26 17.19–31.77 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.03 | 1.51 0.42–2.60 0.13–2.89 | 3.08 0.83–5.34 0.24–5.93 | 39% 24% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.77–2.87 0.50–3.13 | 2.34 1.21–3.47 0.92–3.76 | 4.16 1.98–6.34 1.42–6.89 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.17–4.04 0.78–4.43 | 3.24 1.68–4.80 1.26–5.22 | 5.85 2.86–8.84 2.04–9.65 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.