Bundesliga·Regular Season - 17·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
22%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.163.08safe0.95–2.890.31–2.011.25–4.90safer0.70–3.140.08–2.240.78–5.38
Shots on target
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.069.41safe3.49–7.212.32–5.815.81–13.02safer3.00–7.701.85–6.274.85–13.98
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction16.4710.6127.09safe12.55–20.407.05–14.1819.60–34.57safer11.46–21.496.09–15.1417.55–36.62
Shots in box
81%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction11.156.9118.07safe8.21–14.104.23–9.5912.44–23.69safer7.38–14.933.49–10.3310.88–25.26
Blocked shots
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.772.927.69safe2.89–6.651.27–4.574.15–11.22safer2.34–7.190.77–5.063.12–12.26
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.343.7010.05safe4.13–8.551.70–5.705.83–14.26safer3.55–9.131.17–6.244.72–15.37
Possession %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction57.4642.95safe50.67–64.2536.16–49.73safer49.00–65.9234.49–51.41
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction538396934safe470–605330–463800–1067safer452–623312–480764–1103
Pass accuracy %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction76.7572.41safe72.72–80.7868.09–76.74safer71.42–82.0766.78–78.05
Fouls
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction11.079.5920.66safe8.23–13.906.65–12.5414.88–26.44safer7.47–14.665.90–13.2813.37–27.95
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.893.72safe0.67–2.990.80–2.981.46–5.97safer0.37–3.290.51–3.270.87–6.56
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.873.36safe0.44–2.540.74–3.001.18–5.54safer0.17–2.810.45–3.290.62–6.09
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.325.95safe1.19–4.061.77–4.882.95–8.94safer0.80–4.451.34–5.302.14–9.75
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.92 0.95–2.89 0.70–3.14 | 1.16 0.31–2.01 0.08–2.24 | 3.08 1.25–4.90 0.78–5.38 | 55% 22% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.35 3.49–7.21 3.00–7.70 | 4.06 2.32–5.81 1.85–6.27 | 9.41 5.81–13.02 4.85–13.98 | 60% 28% |
| Total shots | 16.47 12.55–20.40 11.46–21.49 | 10.61 7.05–14.18 6.09–15.14 | 27.09 19.60–34.57 17.55–36.62 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 11.15 8.21–14.10 7.38–14.93 | 6.91 4.23–9.59 3.49–10.33 | 18.07 12.44–23.69 10.88–25.26 | 81% 13% |
| Blocked shots | 4.77 2.89–6.65 2.34–7.19 | 2.92 1.27–4.57 0.77–5.06 | 7.69 4.15–11.22 3.12–12.26 | 69% 20% |
| Corners | 6.34 4.13–8.55 3.55–9.13 | 3.70 1.70–5.70 1.17–6.24 | 10.05 5.83–14.26 4.72–15.37 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 57.46 50.67–64.25 49.00–65.92 | 42.95 36.16–49.73 34.49–51.41 | — | 79% 18% |
| Passes | 538 470–605 452–623 | 396 330–463 312–480 | 934 800–1067 764–1103 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.75 72.72–80.78 71.42–82.07 | 72.41 68.09–76.74 66.78–78.05 | — | 69% 27% |
| Fouls | 11.07 8.23–13.90 7.47–14.66 | 9.59 6.65–12.54 5.90–13.28 | 20.66 14.88–26.44 13.37–27.95 | 58% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 1.89 0.80–2.98 0.51–3.27 | 3.72 1.46–5.97 0.87–6.56 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.44–2.54 0.17–2.81 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 3.36 1.18–5.54 0.62–6.09 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.19–4.06 0.80–4.45 | 3.32 1.77–4.88 1.34–5.30 | 5.95 2.95–8.94 2.14–9.75 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.