Bundesliga·Regular Season - 18·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.772.98safe0.24–2.180.92–2.631.16–4.81safer0.00–2.430.69–2.860.68–5.29
Shots on target
30%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.345.519.85safe2.48–6.213.76–7.256.24–13.45safer1.99–6.703.30–7.715.29–14.41
Total shots
27%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8515.6728.53safe8.93–16.7812.11–19.2421.04–36.01safer7.84–17.8711.15–20.1918.99–38.07
Shots in box
17%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction7.3710.8818.24safe4.42–10.318.20–13.5612.62–23.87safer3.60–11.147.46–14.3011.05–25.43
Blocked shots
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.014.478.48safe2.13–5.892.81–6.124.94–12.01safer1.58–6.432.32–6.613.90–13.05
Corners
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction5.065.5210.58safe2.85–7.283.52–7.526.37–14.79safer2.28–7.852.98–8.055.26–15.90
Possession %
58%
38%
homeawayprediction52.7548.44safe45.96–59.5441.65–55.22safer44.29–61.2139.98–56.89
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction462421883safe394–529355–488749–1017safer376–547337–505714–1052
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction64.7072.02safe60.67–68.7367.69–76.34safer59.38–70.0266.38–77.65
Fouls
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3512.7723.12safe7.52–13.199.82–15.7117.34–28.90safer6.76–13.959.07–16.4615.83–30.41
Offsides
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.632.013.64safe0.47–2.790.92–3.101.38–5.89safer0.17–3.090.63–3.390.79–6.48
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.943.45safe0.47–2.570.81–3.061.27–5.63safer0.20–2.830.52–3.360.72–6.19
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.402.856.25safe1.97–4.841.29–4.403.26–9.24safer1.58–5.230.87–4.832.45–10.06
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.24–2.18 0.00–2.43 | 1.77 0.92–2.63 0.69–2.86 | 2.98 1.16–4.81 0.68–5.29 | 26% 23% 51% |
| Shots on target | 4.34 2.48–6.21 1.99–6.70 | 5.51 3.76–7.25 3.30–7.71 | 9.85 6.24–13.45 5.29–14.41 | 30% 58% |
| Total shots | 12.85 8.93–16.78 7.84–17.87 | 15.67 12.11–19.24 11.15–20.19 | 28.53 21.04–36.01 18.99–38.07 | 27% 67% |
| Shots in box | 7.37 4.42–10.31 3.60–11.14 | 10.88 8.20–13.56 7.46–14.30 | 18.24 12.62–23.87 11.05–25.43 | 17% 76% |
| Blocked shots | 4.01 2.13–5.89 1.58–6.43 | 4.47 2.81–6.12 2.32–6.61 | 8.48 4.94–12.01 3.90–13.05 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Corners | 5.06 2.85–7.28 2.28–7.85 | 5.52 3.52–7.52 2.98–8.05 | 10.58 6.37–14.79 5.26–15.90 | 38% 49% |
| Possession % | 52.75 45.96–59.54 44.29–61.21 | 48.44 41.65–55.22 39.98–56.89 | — | 58% 38% |
| Passes | 462 394–529 376–547 | 421 355–488 337–505 | 883 749–1017 714–1052 | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.70 60.67–68.73 59.38–70.02 | 72.02 67.69–76.34 66.38–77.65 | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 10.35 7.52–13.19 6.76–13.95 | 12.77 9.82–15.71 9.07–16.46 | 23.12 17.34–28.90 15.83–30.41 | 27% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.47–2.79 0.17–3.09 | 2.01 0.92–3.10 0.63–3.39 | 3.64 1.38–5.89 0.79–6.48 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.47–2.57 0.20–2.83 | 1.94 0.81–3.06 0.52–3.36 | 3.45 1.27–5.63 0.72–6.19 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.40 1.97–4.84 1.58–5.23 | 2.85 1.29–4.40 0.87–4.83 | 6.25 3.26–9.24 2.45–10.06 | 51% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.