Bundesliga·Regular Season - 27·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
22%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.083.04safe0.99–2.930.23–1.941.22–4.86safer0.74–3.180.00–2.160.74–5.34
Shots on target
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.633.549.17safe3.77–7.491.80–5.295.57–12.78safer3.28–7.981.34–5.754.61–13.73
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction18.2210.2928.51safe14.30–22.156.72–13.8521.02–36.00safer13.21–23.245.76–14.8118.97–38.05
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction12.476.6519.12safe9.53–15.413.97–9.3313.49–24.74safer8.70–16.243.23–10.0711.93–26.31
Blocked shots
61%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.643.317.95safe2.76–6.521.66–4.964.41–11.48safer2.21–7.061.16–5.453.38–12.52
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.253.9510.20safe4.04–8.461.95–5.955.98–14.41safer3.46–9.041.42–6.484.88–15.52
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction52.7747.30safe45.98–59.5640.52–54.09safer44.31–61.2338.85–55.76
Passes
68%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction465407872safe398–532340–473738–1005safer379–550323–491702–1041
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction70.1867.99safe66.15–74.2163.67–72.31safer64.86–75.5062.36–73.62
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9010.6821.58safe8.06–13.737.74–13.6315.80–27.36safer7.30–14.496.99–14.3814.29–28.87
Offsides
50%
22%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.353.25safe0.74–3.060.26–2.451.00–5.51safer0.44–3.360.00–2.730.41–6.10
Yellow cards
26%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.843.11safe0.22–2.320.72–2.970.93–5.29safer0.00–2.580.42–3.260.38–5.85
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
20%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.293.796.07safe0.85–3.722.23–5.343.08–9.07safer0.46–4.111.81–5.772.27–9.88
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.96 0.99–2.93 0.74–3.18 | 1.08 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.16 | 3.04 1.22–4.86 0.74–5.34 | 58% 22% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.63 3.77–7.49 3.28–7.98 | 3.54 1.80–5.29 1.34–5.75 | 9.17 5.57–12.78 4.61–13.73 | 70% 19% |
| Total shots | 18.22 14.30–22.15 13.21–23.24 | 10.29 6.72–13.85 5.76–14.81 | 28.51 21.02–36.00 18.97–38.05 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 12.47 9.53–15.41 8.70–16.24 | 6.65 3.97–9.33 3.23–10.07 | 19.12 13.49–24.74 11.93–26.31 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.64 2.76–6.52 2.21–7.06 | 3.31 1.66–4.96 1.16–5.45 | 7.95 4.41–11.48 3.38–12.52 | 61% 26% |
| Corners | 6.25 4.04–8.46 3.46–9.04 | 3.95 1.95–5.95 1.42–6.48 | 10.20 5.98–14.41 4.88–15.52 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 52.77 45.98–59.56 44.31–61.23 | 47.30 40.52–54.09 38.85–55.76 | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 465 398–532 379–550 | 407 340–473 323–491 | 872 738–1005 702–1041 | 68% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.18 66.15–74.21 64.86–75.50 | 67.99 63.67–72.31 62.36–73.62 | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 10.90 8.06–13.73 7.30–14.49 | 10.68 7.74–13.63 6.99–14.38 | 21.58 15.80–27.36 14.29–28.87 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.36 | 1.35 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.73 | 3.25 1.00–5.51 0.41–6.10 | 50% 22% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.27 0.22–2.32 0.00–2.58 | 1.84 0.72–2.97 0.42–3.26 | 3.11 0.93–5.29 0.38–5.85 | 26% 23% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.29 0.85–3.72 0.46–4.11 | 3.79 2.23–5.34 1.81–5.77 | 6.07 3.08–9.07 2.27–9.88 | 20% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.