Bundesliga·Regular Season - 33·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
23%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.263.13safe0.90–2.840.41–2.121.31–4.95safer0.65–3.090.18–2.350.83–5.43
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.804.8210.61safe3.93–7.663.07–6.567.01–14.22safer3.44–8.152.61–7.036.05–15.17
Total shots
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction17.0513.6330.68safe13.12–20.9710.07–17.2023.20–38.17safer12.03–22.079.11–18.1621.14–40.22
Shots in box
64%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction10.998.9119.90safe8.04–13.936.23–11.6014.28–25.52safer7.21–14.765.50–12.3312.71–27.09
Blocked shots
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.143.118.26safe3.26–7.031.46–4.764.72–11.79safer2.72–7.570.97–5.263.68–12.83
Corners
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.664.5211.18safe4.44–8.872.52–6.526.96–15.39safer3.87–9.441.99–7.055.86–16.50
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.3742.00safe50.58–64.1635.21–48.78safer48.91–65.8333.54–50.45
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction520386906safe453–588319–452772–1040safer435–606302–470737–1075
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction70.6468.61safe66.62–74.6764.28–72.93safer65.32–75.9762.97–74.24
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1412.7122.86safe7.31–12.989.77–15.6617.07–28.64safer6.55–13.749.02–16.4115.57–30.14
Offsides
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.963.75safe0.63–2.950.87–3.051.50–6.01safer0.33–3.250.58–3.340.91–6.59
Yellow cards
21%
19%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.342.373.71safe0.30–2.391.24–3.491.53–5.89safer0.03–2.660.95–3.790.98–6.45
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.120.17safe0.00–0.210.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.360.00–0.440.00–0.80
GK saves
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.103.886.99safe1.67–4.542.32–5.443.99–9.98safer1.28–4.931.90–5.863.18–10.79
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.87 0.90–2.84 0.65–3.09 | 1.26 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.35 | 3.13 1.31–4.95 0.83–5.43 | 52% 23% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.80 3.93–7.66 3.44–8.15 | 4.82 3.07–6.56 2.61–7.03 | 10.61 7.01–14.22 6.05–15.17 | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 17.05 13.12–20.97 12.03–22.07 | 13.63 10.07–17.20 9.11–18.16 | 30.68 23.20–38.17 21.14–40.22 | 70% 24% |
| Shots in box | 10.99 8.04–13.93 7.21–14.76 | 8.91 6.23–11.60 5.50–12.33 | 19.90 14.28–25.52 12.71–27.09 | 64% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 5.14 3.26–7.03 2.72–7.57 | 3.11 1.46–4.76 0.97–5.26 | 8.26 4.72–11.79 3.68–12.83 | 70% 19% |
| Corners | 6.66 4.44–8.87 3.87–9.44 | 4.52 2.52–6.52 1.99–7.05 | 11.18 6.96–15.39 5.86–16.50 | 69% 21% |
| Possession % | 57.37 50.58–64.16 48.91–65.83 | 42.00 35.21–48.78 33.54–50.45 | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 520 453–588 435–606 | 386 319–452 302–470 | 906 772–1040 737–1075 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.64 66.62–74.67 65.32–75.97 | 68.61 64.28–72.93 62.97–74.24 | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 10.14 7.31–12.98 6.55–13.74 | 12.71 9.77–15.66 9.02–16.41 | 22.86 17.07–28.64 15.57–30.14 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.63–2.95 0.33–3.25 | 1.96 0.87–3.05 0.58–3.34 | 3.75 1.50–6.01 0.91–6.59 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.34 0.30–2.39 0.03–2.66 | 2.37 1.24–3.49 0.95–3.79 | 3.71 1.53–5.89 0.98–6.45 | 21% 19% 60% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.10 1.67–4.54 1.28–4.93 | 3.88 2.32–5.44 1.90–5.86 | 6.99 3.99–9.98 3.18–10.79 | 31% 15% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+