Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 12·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
29%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.091.162.25safe0.12–2.060.31–2.020.43–4.08safer0.00–2.310.08–2.250.00–4.56
Shots on target
42%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.793.837.62safe1.93–5.652.09–5.584.02–11.23safer1.44–6.141.63–6.043.06–12.18
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9912.7424.73safe8.07–15.919.18–16.3017.24–32.22safer6.97–17.018.22–17.2615.19–34.27
Shots in box
32%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction6.377.5913.96safe3.43–9.314.91–10.278.33–19.58safer2.60–10.144.17–11.016.77–21.15
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.123.046.16safe1.24–5.001.39–4.702.63–9.70safer0.70–5.550.90–5.191.59–10.73
Corners
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.534.819.34safe2.31–6.742.81–6.815.13–13.55safer1.74–7.312.28–7.354.02–14.66
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction53.6546.28safe46.86–60.4439.50–53.07safer45.19–62.1137.82–54.74
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction472375848safe405–540309–442714–981safer387–558291–459678–1017
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction70.3970.62safe66.36–74.4266.30–74.94safer65.07–75.7164.99–76.25
Fouls
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5514.3426.88safe9.71–15.3911.39–17.2821.10–32.67safer8.95–16.1410.64–18.0319.60–34.17
Offsides
43%
24%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.423.05safe0.47–2.790.33–2.510.80–5.31safer0.17–3.090.04–2.800.21–5.89
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.294.19safe0.85–2.951.16–3.422.01–6.36safer0.58–3.210.87–3.711.45–6.92
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.130.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.390.00–0.450.00–0.83
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.782.825.60safe1.35–4.221.26–4.372.61–8.59safer0.96–4.610.84–4.801.80–9.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 0.12–2.06 0.00–2.31 | 1.16 0.31–2.02 0.08–2.25 | 2.25 0.43–4.08 0.00–4.56 | 34% 29% 37% |
| Shots on target | 3.79 1.93–5.65 1.44–6.14 | 3.83 2.09–5.58 1.63–6.04 | 7.62 4.02–11.23 3.06–12.18 | 42% 15% 43% |
| Total shots | 11.99 8.07–15.91 6.97–17.01 | 12.74 9.18–16.30 8.22–17.26 | 24.73 17.24–32.22 15.19–34.27 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 6.37 3.43–9.31 2.60–10.14 | 7.59 4.91–10.27 4.17–11.01 | 13.96 8.33–19.58 6.77–21.15 | 32% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 1.24–5.00 0.70–5.55 | 3.04 1.39–4.70 0.90–5.19 | 6.16 2.63–9.70 1.59–10.73 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 4.53 2.31–6.74 1.74–7.31 | 4.81 2.81–6.81 2.28–7.35 | 9.34 5.13–13.55 4.02–14.66 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Possession % | 53.65 46.86–60.44 45.19–62.11 | 46.28 39.50–53.07 37.82–54.74 | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 472 405–540 387–558 | 375 309–442 291–459 | 848 714–981 678–1017 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.39 66.36–74.42 65.07–75.71 | 70.62 66.30–74.94 64.99–76.25 | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 12.55 9.71–15.39 8.95–16.14 | 14.34 11.39–17.28 10.64–18.03 | 26.88 21.10–32.67 19.60–34.17 | 33% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.47–2.79 0.17–3.09 | 1.42 0.33–2.51 0.04–2.80 | 3.05 0.80–5.31 0.21–5.89 | 43% 24% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.95 0.58–3.21 | 2.29 1.16–3.42 0.87–3.71 | 4.19 2.01–6.36 1.45–6.92 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.35–4.22 0.96–4.61 | 2.82 1.26–4.37 0.84–4.80 | 5.60 2.61–8.59 1.80–9.40 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.