Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 12·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
27%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.332.50safe0.19–2.130.48–2.190.67–4.32safer0.00–2.380.25–2.420.19–4.80
Shots on target
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.754.378.12safe1.89–5.622.62–6.114.52–11.73safer1.40–6.112.16–6.573.56–12.68
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5412.5325.07safe8.61–16.468.97–16.1017.58–32.56safer7.52–17.558.01–17.0615.53–34.61
Shots in box
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction7.717.8815.60safe4.77–10.665.20–10.569.97–21.22safer3.94–11.494.47–11.308.41–22.79
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.413.657.06safe1.53–5.292.00–5.303.53–10.60safer0.98–5.831.51–5.802.49–11.63
Corners
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.444.458.89safe2.22–6.652.45–6.454.67–13.10safer1.65–7.221.92–6.983.57–14.21
Possession %
22%
75%
homeawayprediction44.0656.25safe37.27–50.8549.46–63.03safer35.60–52.5247.79–64.70
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction377491868safe310–445425–557735–1002safer292–463407–575699–1038
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction69.1078.70safe65.07–73.1374.38–83.02safer63.77–74.4273.07–84.33
Fouls
52%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2513.5527.80safe11.42–17.0910.61–16.5022.02–33.59safer10.66–17.859.86–17.2420.52–35.09
Offsides
46%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.162.70safe0.38–2.700.07–2.260.45–4.96safer0.08–3.000.00–2.540.00–5.55
Yellow cards
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.952.695.65safe1.90–4.001.56–3.823.47–7.82safer1.64–4.271.27–4.112.91–8.38
Red cards
16%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction0.200.130.33safe0.04–0.360.00–0.320.00–0.68safer0.00–0.510.00–0.450.00–0.96
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.902.625.52safe1.47–4.341.06–4.172.52–8.51safer1.08–4.720.64–4.601.71–9.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.19–2.13 0.00–2.38 | 1.33 0.48–2.19 0.25–2.42 | 2.50 0.67–4.32 0.19–4.80 | 32% 27% 41% |
| Shots on target | 3.75 1.89–5.62 1.40–6.11 | 4.37 2.62–6.11 2.16–6.57 | 8.12 4.52–11.73 3.56–12.68 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Total shots | 12.54 8.61–16.46 7.52–17.55 | 12.53 8.97–16.10 8.01–17.06 | 25.07 17.58–32.56 15.53–34.61 | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 7.71 4.77–10.66 3.94–11.49 | 7.88 5.20–10.56 4.47–11.30 | 15.60 9.97–21.22 8.41–22.79 | 43% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.41 1.53–5.29 0.98–5.83 | 3.65 2.00–5.30 1.51–5.80 | 7.06 3.53–10.60 2.49–11.63 | 39% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 4.44 2.22–6.65 1.65–7.22 | 4.45 2.45–6.45 1.92–6.98 | 8.89 4.67–13.10 3.57–14.21 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Possession % | 44.06 37.27–50.85 35.60–52.52 | 56.25 49.46–63.03 47.79–64.70 | — | 22% 75% |
| Passes | 377 310–445 292–463 | 491 425–557 407–575 | 868 735–1002 699–1038 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.10 65.07–73.13 63.77–74.42 | 78.70 74.38–83.02 73.07–84.33 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 14.25 11.42–17.09 10.66–17.85 | 13.55 10.61–16.50 9.86–17.24 | 27.80 22.02–33.59 20.52–35.09 | 52% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.54 0.38–2.70 0.08–3.00 | 1.16 0.07–2.26 0.00–2.54 | 2.70 0.45–4.96 0.00–5.55 | 46% 25% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.95 1.90–4.00 1.64–4.27 | 2.69 1.56–3.82 1.27–4.11 | 5.65 3.47–7.82 2.91–8.38 | 46% 17% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.20 0.04–0.36 0.00–0.51 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.33 0.00–0.68 0.00–0.96 | 16% 74% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.47–4.34 1.08–4.72 | 2.62 1.06–4.17 0.64–4.60 | 5.52 2.52–8.51 1.71–9.32 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.