Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 12·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.142.61safe0.50–2.440.29–1.990.79–4.43safer0.25–2.690.06–2.220.31–4.91
Shots on target
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.863.738.59safe3.00–6.721.99–5.474.99–12.20safer2.51–7.211.52–5.944.03–13.15
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6810.7825.46safe10.75–18.607.22–14.3417.97–32.94safer9.66–19.696.26–15.3015.92–35.00
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction9.406.9216.32safe6.46–12.354.23–9.6010.69–21.94safer5.63–13.173.50–10.339.13–23.51
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.803.116.91safe1.91–5.681.46–4.773.38–10.45safer1.37–6.220.97–5.262.34–11.48
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.644.129.76safe3.43–7.862.12–6.125.55–13.97safer2.86–8.431.59–6.654.44–15.08
Possession %
61%
35%
homeawayprediction52.8147.30safe46.02–59.6040.51–54.08safer44.35–61.2738.84–55.75
Passes
71%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction495427922safe428–562361–494789–1056safer410–580343–511753–1092
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction72.5771.29safe68.54–76.6066.97–75.62safer67.25–77.8965.66–76.93
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8911.5023.39safe9.06–14.738.55–14.4417.61–29.17safer8.30–15.497.80–15.1916.10–30.68
Offsides
56%
21%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.283.35safe0.91–3.230.18–2.371.10–5.60safer0.61–3.530.00–2.660.51–6.19
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.863.47safe0.56–2.650.74–2.991.29–5.65safer0.29–2.920.44–3.280.73–6.20
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.305.96safe1.22–4.091.75–4.862.96–8.95safer0.83–4.481.32–5.282.15–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.44 0.25–2.69 | 1.14 0.29–1.99 0.06–2.22 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.31–4.91 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.86 3.00–6.72 2.51–7.21 | 3.73 1.99–5.47 1.52–5.94 | 8.59 4.99–12.20 4.03–13.15 | 58% 29% |
| Total shots | 14.68 10.75–18.60 9.66–19.69 | 10.78 7.22–14.34 6.26–15.30 | 25.46 17.97–32.94 15.92–35.00 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 9.40 6.46–12.35 5.63–13.17 | 6.92 4.23–9.60 3.50–10.33 | 16.32 10.69–21.94 9.13–23.51 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 3.80 1.91–5.68 1.37–6.22 | 3.11 1.46–4.77 0.97–5.26 | 6.91 3.38–10.45 2.34–11.48 | 53% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.64 3.43–7.86 2.86–8.43 | 4.12 2.12–6.12 1.59–6.65 | 9.76 5.55–13.97 4.44–15.08 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 52.81 46.02–59.60 44.35–61.27 | 47.30 40.51–54.08 38.84–55.75 | — | 61% 35% |
| Passes | 495 428–562 410–580 | 427 361–494 343–511 | 922 789–1056 753–1092 | 71% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.57 68.54–76.60 67.25–77.89 | 71.29 66.97–75.62 65.66–76.93 | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 11.89 9.06–14.73 8.30–15.49 | 11.50 8.55–14.44 7.80–15.19 | 23.39 17.61–29.17 16.10–30.68 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 2.07 0.91–3.23 0.61–3.53 | 1.28 0.18–2.37 0.00–2.66 | 3.35 1.10–5.60 0.51–6.19 | 56% 21% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.56–2.65 0.29–2.92 | 1.86 0.74–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 3.47 1.29–5.65 0.73–6.20 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.22–4.09 0.83–4.48 | 3.30 1.75–4.86 1.32–5.28 | 5.96 2.96–8.95 2.15–9.76 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+