Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
28%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.320.992.32safe0.36–2.290.14–1.850.49–4.14safer0.10–2.540.00–2.080.01–4.62
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.253.778.01safe2.39–6.112.02–5.514.41–11.62safer1.90–6.601.56–5.973.45–12.57
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5711.5024.06safe8.64–16.497.93–15.0616.58–31.55safer7.55–17.586.98–16.0214.52–33.60
Shots in box
52%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction7.716.9914.70safe4.77–10.654.31–9.679.08–20.32safer3.94–11.483.57–10.417.51–21.89
Blocked shots
52%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.302.645.94safe1.42–5.190.99–4.292.41–9.48safer0.88–5.730.50–4.791.37–10.51
Corners
49%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.734.268.99safe2.52–6.952.26–6.264.78–13.21safer1.94–7.521.73–6.803.67–14.31
Possession %
38%
58%
homeawayprediction47.7652.05safe40.97–54.5545.27–58.84safer39.30–56.2243.60–60.51
Passes
42%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction414436850safe347–481370–503717–984safer329–499353–520681–1020
Pass accuracy %
34%
62%
homeawayprediction69.3772.15safe65.34–73.4067.83–76.48safer64.05–74.7066.52–77.79
Fouls
53%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1012.2625.36safe10.26–15.949.32–15.2119.58–31.14safer9.50–16.698.57–15.9618.07–32.65
Offsides
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.473.09safe0.46–2.780.38–2.560.84–5.34safer0.16–3.080.09–2.850.25–5.93
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.972.013.99safe0.92–3.020.89–3.141.81–6.17safer0.66–3.290.59–3.431.25–6.72
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.732.965.69safe1.29–4.161.41–4.522.70–8.68safer0.90–4.550.98–4.941.88–9.49
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.36–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 0.99 0.14–1.85 0.00–2.08 | 2.32 0.49–4.14 0.01–4.62 | 44% 28% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.39–6.11 1.90–6.60 | 3.77 2.02–5.51 1.56–5.97 | 8.01 4.41–11.62 3.45–12.57 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 12.57 8.64–16.49 7.55–17.58 | 11.50 7.93–15.06 6.98–16.02 | 24.06 16.58–31.55 14.52–33.60 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 7.71 4.77–10.65 3.94–11.48 | 6.99 4.31–9.67 3.57–10.41 | 14.70 9.08–20.32 7.51–21.89 | 52% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 1.42–5.19 0.88–5.73 | 2.64 0.99–4.29 0.50–4.79 | 5.94 2.41–9.48 1.37–10.51 | 52% 16% 31% |
| Corners | 4.73 2.52–6.95 1.94–7.52 | 4.26 2.26–6.26 1.73–6.80 | 8.99 4.78–13.21 3.67–14.31 | 49% 13% 37% |
| Possession % | 47.76 40.97–54.55 39.30–56.22 | 52.05 45.27–58.84 43.60–60.51 | — | 38% 58% |
| Passes | 414 347–481 329–499 | 436 370–503 353–520 | 850 717–984 681–1020 | 42% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.37 65.34–73.40 64.05–74.70 | 72.15 67.83–76.48 66.52–77.79 | — | 34% 62% |
| Fouls | 13.10 10.26–15.94 9.50–16.69 | 12.26 9.32–15.21 8.57–15.96 | 25.36 19.58–31.14 18.07–32.65 | 53% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.46–2.78 0.16–3.08 | 1.47 0.38–2.56 0.09–2.85 | 3.09 0.84–5.34 0.25–5.93 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.92–3.02 0.66–3.29 | 2.01 0.89–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 3.99 1.81–6.17 1.25–6.72 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.29–4.16 0.90–4.55 | 2.96 1.41–4.52 0.98–4.94 | 5.69 2.70–8.68 1.88–9.49 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+