Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 12·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
27%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.352.49safe0.18–2.110.50–2.200.67–4.32safer0.00–2.360.27–2.430.19–4.80
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.734.157.87safe1.87–5.592.40–5.894.27–11.48safer1.38–6.081.94–6.353.31–12.43
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8412.2124.05safe7.91–15.768.65–15.7816.56–31.54safer6.82–16.857.69–16.7414.51–33.59
Shots in box
37%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction7.368.2015.56safe4.42–10.305.52–10.889.93–21.18safer3.59–11.134.78–11.628.37–22.75
Blocked shots
45%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.825.83safe1.13–4.891.17–4.482.30–9.37safer0.58–5.430.68–4.971.26–10.40
Corners
42%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.714.799.50safe2.50–6.922.79–6.795.29–13.71safer1.92–7.502.26–7.324.18–14.82
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.0252.45safe40.23–53.8145.66–59.23safer38.56–55.4843.99–60.90
Passes
39%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction386419805safe319–453353–486671–939safer300–471335–503636–974
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction65.1570.78safe61.12–69.1766.45–75.10safer59.82–70.4765.15–76.41
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3614.9029.26safe11.52–17.1911.96–17.8523.48–35.04safer10.76–17.9511.21–18.6021.97–36.55
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.923.65safe0.57–2.890.83–3.021.40–5.91safer0.27–3.190.54–3.300.81–6.50
Yellow cards
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.362.434.80safe1.31–3.411.31–3.562.62–6.98safer1.05–3.681.01–3.852.06–7.53
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.130.24safe0.00–0.270.00–0.320.00–0.59safer0.00–0.420.00–0.450.00–0.87
GK saves
47%
18%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.852.505.36safe1.42–4.290.95–4.062.36–8.35safer1.03–4.680.52–4.481.55–9.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.18–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 1.35 0.50–2.20 0.27–2.43 | 2.49 0.67–4.32 0.19–4.80 | 32% 27% 41% |
| Shots on target | 3.73 1.87–5.59 1.38–6.08 | 4.15 2.40–5.89 1.94–6.35 | 7.87 4.27–11.48 3.31–12.43 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Total shots | 11.84 7.91–15.76 6.82–16.85 | 12.21 8.65–15.78 7.69–16.74 | 24.05 16.56–31.54 14.51–33.59 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 7.36 4.42–10.30 3.59–11.13 | 8.20 5.52–10.88 4.78–11.62 | 15.56 9.93–21.18 8.37–22.75 | 37% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 3.01 1.13–4.89 0.58–5.43 | 2.82 1.17–4.48 0.68–4.97 | 5.83 2.30–9.37 1.26–10.40 | 45% 17% 39% |
| Corners | 4.71 2.50–6.92 1.92–7.50 | 4.79 2.79–6.79 2.26–7.32 | 9.50 5.29–13.71 4.18–14.82 | 42% 13% 44% |
| Possession % | 47.02 40.23–53.81 38.56–55.48 | 52.45 45.66–59.23 43.99–60.90 | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 386 319–453 300–471 | 419 353–486 335–503 | 805 671–939 636–974 | 39% 61% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.15 61.12–69.17 59.82–70.47 | 70.78 66.45–75.10 65.15–76.41 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 14.36 11.52–17.19 10.76–17.95 | 14.90 11.96–17.85 11.21–18.60 | 29.26 23.48–35.04 21.97–36.55 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.57–2.89 0.27–3.19 | 1.92 0.83–3.02 0.54–3.30 | 3.65 1.40–5.91 0.81–6.50 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.36 1.31–3.41 1.05–3.68 | 2.43 1.31–3.56 1.01–3.85 | 4.80 2.62–6.98 2.06–7.53 | 39% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 2.50 0.95–4.06 0.52–4.48 | 5.36 2.36–8.35 1.55–9.16 | 47% 18% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.