Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 12·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
59%
23%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.780.882.66safe0.81–2.750.02–1.730.84–4.48safer0.56–3.000.00–1.960.36–4.96
Shots on target
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.753.228.97safe3.89–7.611.48–4.965.37–12.58safer3.40–8.101.01–5.434.41–13.53
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2210.0826.30safe12.30–20.156.52–13.6418.82–33.79safer11.21–21.245.56–14.6016.77–35.84
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction9.736.4316.16safe6.79–12.673.75–9.1110.54–21.78safer5.96–13.503.01–9.858.97–23.35
Blocked shots
63%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.202.817.01safe2.32–6.081.16–4.463.47–10.54safer1.77–6.630.66–4.952.44–11.58
Corners
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.263.709.96safe4.05–8.471.70–5.705.75–14.18safer3.47–9.051.17–6.244.64–15.28
Possession %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction57.8642.13safe51.07–64.6535.34–48.91safer49.40–66.3233.67–50.58
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction479340820safe412–547274–407686–953safer394–565256–424650–989
Pass accuracy %
68%
27%
homeawayprediction71.3967.17safe67.37–75.4262.85–71.50safer66.07–76.7261.54–72.80
Fouls
55%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2113.0627.28safe11.38–17.0510.12–16.0121.50–33.06safer10.62–17.819.37–16.7619.99–34.56
Offsides
33%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.713.20safe0.32–2.640.62–2.810.94–5.45safer0.02–2.940.33–3.090.35–6.04
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.284.34safe1.01–3.111.16–3.412.16–6.52safer0.74–3.370.86–3.701.61–7.08
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.130.22safe0.00–0.250.00–0.320.00–0.57safer0.00–0.400.00–0.450.00–0.85
GK saves
23%
15%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.393.646.03safe0.95–3.832.08–5.203.04–9.02safer0.57–4.211.66–5.622.22–9.83
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.78 0.81–2.75 0.56–3.00 | 0.88 0.02–1.73 0.00–1.96 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.36–4.96 | 59% 23% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.75 3.89–7.61 3.40–8.10 | 3.22 1.48–4.96 1.01–5.43 | 8.97 5.37–12.58 4.41–13.53 | 75% 15% |
| Total shots | 16.22 12.30–20.15 11.21–21.24 | 10.08 6.52–13.64 5.56–14.60 | 26.30 18.82–33.79 16.77–35.84 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 9.73 6.79–12.67 5.96–13.50 | 6.43 3.75–9.11 3.01–9.85 | 16.16 10.54–21.78 8.97–23.35 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.20 2.32–6.08 1.77–6.63 | 2.81 1.16–4.46 0.66–4.95 | 7.01 3.47–10.54 2.44–11.58 | 63% 14% 23% |
| Corners | 6.26 4.05–8.47 3.47–9.05 | 3.70 1.70–5.70 1.17–6.24 | 9.96 5.75–14.18 4.64–15.28 | 74% 16% |
| Possession % | 57.86 51.07–64.65 49.40–66.32 | 42.13 35.34–48.91 33.67–50.58 | — | 81% 16% |
| Passes | 479 412–547 394–565 | 340 274–407 256–424 | 820 686–953 650–989 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.39 67.37–75.42 66.07–76.72 | 67.17 62.85–71.50 61.54–72.80 | — | 68% 27% |
| Fouls | 14.21 11.38–17.05 10.62–17.81 | 13.06 10.12–16.01 9.37–16.76 | 27.28 21.50–33.06 19.99–34.56 | 55% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.32–2.64 0.02–2.94 | 1.71 0.62–2.81 0.33–3.09 | 3.20 0.94–5.45 0.35–6.04 | 33% 23% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 1.01–3.11 0.74–3.37 | 2.28 1.16–3.41 0.86–3.70 | 4.34 2.16–6.52 1.61–7.08 | 36% 20% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.95–3.83 0.57–4.21 | 3.64 2.08–5.20 1.66–5.62 | 6.03 3.04–9.02 2.22–9.83 | 23% 15% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+