Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 13·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
29%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.270.932.20safe0.30–2.240.08–1.790.38–4.02safer0.05–2.490.00–2.020.00–4.50
Shots on target
61%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.483.197.67safe2.62–6.341.45–4.934.06–11.27safer2.13–6.830.98–5.403.11–12.23
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9610.4624.42safe10.04–17.896.90–14.0216.94–31.91safer8.95–18.985.94–14.9814.89–33.96
Shots in box
71%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction8.926.2915.22safe5.98–11.873.61–8.979.59–20.84safer5.15–12.702.87–9.718.03–22.41
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.672.856.52safe1.79–5.551.20–4.512.99–10.06safer1.24–6.100.71–5.001.95–11.09
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.593.809.40safe3.38–7.811.80–5.805.18–13.61safer2.81–8.381.27–6.344.08–14.72
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction53.9546.49safe47.16–60.7439.70–53.27safer45.49–62.4138.03–54.94
Passes
67%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction436384820safe369–503318–450686–954safer351–521300–468651–989
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction69.1969.59safe65.16–73.2265.27–73.92safer63.87–74.5163.96–75.23
Fouls
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4213.0828.51safe12.58–18.2610.14–16.0322.72–34.29safer11.83–19.019.39–16.7821.22–35.79
Offsides
53%
22%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.343.34safe0.84–3.160.25–2.441.09–5.59safer0.54–3.460.00–2.720.50–6.18
Yellow cards
37%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.234.29safe1.01–3.101.10–3.362.11–6.47safer0.74–3.370.81–3.651.55–7.02
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.110.23safe0.00–0.280.00–0.300.00–0.58safer0.00–0.430.00–0.430.00–0.86
GK saves
28%
17%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.303.145.44safe0.86–3.731.59–4.702.45–8.43safer0.47–4.121.16–5.121.64–9.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 0.93 0.08–1.79 0.00–2.02 | 2.20 0.38–4.02 0.00–4.50 | 44% 29% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.48 2.62–6.34 2.13–6.83 | 3.19 1.45–4.93 0.98–5.40 | 7.67 4.06–11.27 3.11–12.23 | 61% 13% 26% |
| Total shots | 13.96 10.04–17.89 8.95–18.98 | 10.46 6.90–14.02 5.94–14.98 | 24.42 16.94–31.91 14.89–33.96 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 8.92 5.98–11.87 5.15–12.70 | 6.29 3.61–8.97 2.87–9.71 | 15.22 9.59–20.84 8.03–22.41 | 71% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 3.67 1.79–5.55 1.24–6.10 | 2.85 1.20–4.51 0.71–5.00 | 6.52 2.99–10.06 1.95–11.09 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.59 3.38–7.81 2.81–8.38 | 3.80 1.80–5.80 1.27–6.34 | 9.40 5.18–13.61 4.08–14.72 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 53.95 47.16–60.74 45.49–62.41 | 46.49 39.70–53.27 38.03–54.94 | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 436 369–503 351–521 | 384 318–450 300–468 | 820 686–954 651–989 | 67% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.19 65.16–73.22 63.87–74.51 | 69.59 65.27–73.92 63.96–75.23 | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 15.42 12.58–18.26 11.83–19.01 | 13.08 10.14–16.03 9.39–16.78 | 28.51 22.72–34.29 21.22–35.79 | 63% 30% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.84–3.16 0.54–3.46 | 1.34 0.25–2.44 0.00–2.72 | 3.34 1.09–5.59 0.50–6.18 | 53% 22% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 1.01–3.10 0.74–3.37 | 2.23 1.10–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 4.29 2.11–6.47 1.55–7.02 | 37% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.30 0.86–3.73 0.47–4.12 | 3.14 1.59–4.70 1.16–5.12 | 5.44 2.45–8.43 1.64–9.25 | 28% 17% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+