Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 13·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
25%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.532.71safe0.22–2.150.67–2.380.89–4.53safer0.00–2.400.44–2.610.41–5.01
Shots on target
34%
13%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.134.878.99safe2.26–5.993.12–6.615.39–12.60safer1.78–6.482.66–7.074.43–13.55
Total shots
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0714.3727.44safe9.14–16.9910.81–17.9319.95–34.92safer8.05–18.089.85–18.8917.90–36.98
Shots in box
36%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction8.099.0417.13safe5.15–11.036.36–11.7211.51–22.76safer4.32–11.865.62–12.469.94–24.32
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.603.386.98safe1.72–5.481.73–5.043.45–10.52safer1.17–6.031.24–5.532.41–11.56
Corners
37%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.785.3110.09safe2.57–7.003.31–7.315.88–14.31safer1.99–7.572.78–7.844.77–15.41
Possession %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction48.1452.05safe41.35–54.9345.26–58.83safer39.68–56.6043.59–60.50
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction426444870safe359–493377–510736–1003safer340–511360–528700–1039
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction68.1172.21safe64.08–72.1467.89–76.54safer62.79–73.4366.58–77.85
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3214.0625.38safe8.48–14.1611.11–17.0019.59–31.16safer7.72–14.9110.37–17.7518.09–32.66
Offsides
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.012.074.07safe0.85–3.170.97–3.161.82–6.33safer0.54–3.470.69–3.451.23–6.92
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.882.124.01safe0.83–2.930.99–3.251.83–6.18safer0.57–3.200.70–3.541.27–6.74
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.262.876.13safe1.83–4.701.31–4.423.14–9.12safer1.44–5.090.89–4.852.33–9.93
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.15 0.00–2.40 | 1.53 0.67–2.38 0.44–2.61 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 29% 25% 45% |
| Shots on target | 4.13 2.26–5.99 1.78–6.48 | 4.87 3.12–6.61 2.66–7.07 | 8.99 5.39–12.60 4.43–13.55 | 34% 13% 53% |
| Total shots | 13.07 9.14–16.99 8.05–18.08 | 14.37 10.81–17.93 9.85–18.89 | 27.44 19.95–34.92 17.90–36.98 | 36% 56% |
| Shots in box | 8.09 5.15–11.03 4.32–11.86 | 9.04 6.36–11.72 5.62–12.46 | 17.13 11.51–22.76 9.94–24.32 | 36% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 1.72–5.48 1.17–6.03 | 3.38 1.73–5.04 1.24–5.53 | 6.98 3.45–10.52 2.41–11.56 | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 4.78 2.57–7.00 1.99–7.57 | 5.31 3.31–7.31 2.78–7.84 | 10.09 5.88–14.31 4.77–15.41 | 37% 50% |
| Possession % | 48.14 41.35–54.93 39.68–56.60 | 52.05 45.26–58.83 43.59–60.50 | — | 39% 57% |
| Passes | 426 359–493 340–511 | 444 377–510 360–528 | 870 736–1003 700–1039 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.11 64.08–72.14 62.79–73.43 | 72.21 67.89–76.54 66.58–77.85 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 11.32 8.48–14.16 7.72–14.91 | 14.06 11.11–17.00 10.37–17.75 | 25.38 19.59–31.16 18.09–32.66 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 2.01 0.85–3.17 0.54–3.47 | 2.07 0.97–3.16 0.69–3.45 | 4.07 1.82–6.33 1.23–6.92 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.83–2.93 0.57–3.20 | 2.12 0.99–3.25 0.70–3.54 | 4.01 1.83–6.18 1.27–6.74 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.26 1.83–4.70 1.44–5.09 | 2.87 1.31–4.42 0.89–4.85 | 6.13 3.14–9.12 2.33–9.93 | 48% 16% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.