Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 13·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.182.45safe0.31–2.250.32–2.030.63–4.28safer0.06–2.500.09–2.260.15–4.76
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.143.767.90safe2.27–6.002.02–5.514.29–11.50safer1.78–6.491.56–5.973.34–12.46
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3010.5624.85safe10.37–18.227.00–14.1217.37–32.34safer9.28–19.316.04–15.0815.32–34.39
Shots in box
59%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction8.547.1215.66safe5.60–11.484.44–9.8010.04–21.28safer4.77–12.313.70–10.548.47–22.85
Blocked shots
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.682.496.17safe1.80–5.560.84–4.142.63–9.70safer1.25–6.100.34–4.631.60–10.74
Corners
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.179.60safe3.21–7.642.17–6.175.39–13.81safer2.64–8.211.64–6.714.28–14.92
Possession %
33%
63%
homeawayprediction47.0053.57safe40.21–53.7946.79–60.36safer38.54–55.4645.12–62.03
Passes
33%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction410461871safe343–478395–527738–1005safer325–496377–545702–1041
Pass accuracy %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction66.0772.77safe62.04–70.1068.44–77.09safer60.75–71.3967.13–78.40
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4713.5026.98safe10.63–16.3110.56–16.4521.19–32.76safer9.88–17.079.81–17.2019.69–34.26
Offsides
43%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.272.78safe0.34–2.670.18–2.370.53–5.03safer0.04–2.970.00–2.660.00–5.62
Yellow cards
33%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.982.374.35safe0.93–3.031.24–3.502.17–6.52safer0.66–3.290.95–3.791.61–7.08
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.502.655.15safe1.06–3.931.10–4.212.16–8.15safer0.68–4.320.67–4.641.35–8.96
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 0.31–2.25 0.06–2.50 | 1.18 0.32–2.03 0.09–2.26 | 2.45 0.63–4.28 0.15–4.76 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.27–6.00 1.78–6.49 | 3.76 2.02–5.51 1.56–5.97 | 7.90 4.29–11.50 3.34–12.46 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.30 10.37–18.22 9.28–19.31 | 10.56 7.00–14.12 6.04–15.08 | 24.85 17.37–32.34 15.32–34.39 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 8.54 5.60–11.48 4.77–12.31 | 7.12 4.44–9.80 3.70–10.54 | 15.66 10.04–21.28 8.47–22.85 | 59% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.68 1.80–5.56 1.25–6.10 | 2.49 0.84–4.14 0.34–4.63 | 6.17 2.63–9.70 1.60–10.74 | 61% 15% 24% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.21–7.64 2.64–8.21 | 4.17 2.17–6.17 1.64–6.71 | 9.60 5.39–13.81 4.28–14.92 | 59% 28% |
| Possession % | 47.00 40.21–53.79 38.54–55.46 | 53.57 46.79–60.36 45.12–62.03 | — | 33% 63% |
| Passes | 410 343–478 325–496 | 461 395–527 377–545 | 871 738–1005 702–1041 | 33% 66% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.07 62.04–70.10 60.75–71.39 | 72.77 68.44–77.09 67.13–78.40 | — | 18% 79% |
| Fouls | 13.47 10.63–16.31 9.88–17.07 | 13.50 10.56–16.45 9.81–17.20 | 26.98 21.19–32.76 19.69–34.26 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.34–2.67 0.04–2.97 | 1.27 0.18–2.37 0.00–2.66 | 2.78 0.53–5.03 0.00–5.62 | 43% 25% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.93–3.03 0.66–3.29 | 2.37 1.24–3.50 0.95–3.79 | 4.35 2.17–6.52 1.61–7.08 | 33% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.06–3.93 0.68–4.32 | 2.65 1.10–4.21 0.67–4.64 | 5.15 2.16–8.15 1.35–8.96 | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.