Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 13·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
24%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.650.822.46safe0.68–2.610.00–1.670.64–4.28safer0.43–2.870.00–1.900.16–4.76
Shots on target
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction5.192.898.08safe3.32–7.051.15–4.634.47–11.68safer2.83–7.540.68–5.103.52–12.64
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction15.389.0224.39safe11.45–19.305.46–12.5816.91–31.88safer10.36–20.394.50–13.5414.86–33.93
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction9.365.2114.56safe6.41–12.302.53–7.898.94–20.19safer5.59–13.131.79–8.637.37–21.75
Blocked shots
70%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction3.952.146.09safe2.07–5.830.49–3.802.56–9.63safer1.52–6.370.00–4.291.52–10.66
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.043.409.45safe3.83–8.261.40–5.405.23–13.66safer3.26–8.830.87–5.944.13–14.77
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction55.1744.87safe48.38–61.9638.08–51.65safer46.71–63.6336.41–53.32
Passes
76%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction474388861safe406–541321–454728–995safer388–559304–472692–1031
Pass accuracy %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction74.6971.45safe70.66–78.7267.13–75.78safer69.37–80.0165.82–77.09
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9014.8527.74safe10.06–15.7411.90–17.7921.96–33.53safer9.31–16.4911.15–18.5420.46–35.03
Offsides
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.372.86safe0.33–2.650.27–2.460.61–5.11safer0.03–2.950.00–2.750.02–5.70
Yellow cards
24%
17%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.844.65safe0.76–2.861.71–3.962.47–6.83safer0.50–3.131.41–4.261.91–7.38
Red cards
76%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.170.30safe0.00–0.290.00–0.350.00–0.64safer0.00–0.440.00–0.490.00–0.93
GK saves
23%
15%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.183.415.59safe0.74–3.611.86–4.972.60–8.58safer0.35–4.001.43–5.391.79–9.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.68–2.61 0.43–2.87 | 0.82 0.00–1.67 0.00–1.90 | 2.46 0.64–4.28 0.16–4.76 | 57% 24% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.19 3.32–7.05 2.83–7.54 | 2.89 1.15–4.63 0.68–5.10 | 8.08 4.47–11.68 3.52–12.64 | 74% 16% |
| Total shots | 15.38 11.45–19.30 10.36–20.39 | 9.02 5.46–12.58 4.50–13.54 | 24.39 16.91–31.88 14.86–33.93 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 9.36 6.41–12.30 5.59–13.13 | 5.21 2.53–7.89 1.79–8.63 | 14.56 8.94–20.19 7.37–21.75 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.95 2.07–5.83 1.52–6.37 | 2.14 0.49–3.80 0.00–4.29 | 6.09 2.56–9.63 1.52–10.66 | 70% 17% |
| Corners | 6.04 3.83–8.26 3.26–8.83 | 3.40 1.40–5.40 0.87–5.94 | 9.45 5.23–13.66 4.13–14.77 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 55.17 48.38–61.96 46.71–63.63 | 44.87 38.08–51.65 36.41–53.32 | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 474 406–541 388–559 | 388 321–454 304–472 | 861 728–995 692–1031 | 76% 24% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.69 70.66–78.72 69.37–80.01 | 71.45 67.13–75.78 65.82–77.09 | — | 64% 32% |
| Fouls | 12.90 10.06–15.74 9.31–16.49 | 14.85 11.90–17.79 11.15–18.54 | 27.74 21.96–33.53 20.46–35.03 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.49 0.33–2.65 0.03–2.95 | 1.37 0.27–2.46 0.00–2.75 | 2.86 0.61–5.11 0.02–5.70 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.86 0.50–3.13 | 2.84 1.71–3.96 1.41–4.26 | 4.65 2.47–6.83 1.91–7.38 | 24% 17% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.17 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.49 | 0.30 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.93 | 76% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.18 0.74–3.61 0.35–4.00 | 3.41 1.86–4.97 1.43–5.39 | 5.59 2.60–8.58 1.79–9.40 | 23% 15% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+