Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 13·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
18%
24%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction0.851.712.55safe0.00–1.820.85–2.560.73–4.38safer0.00–2.070.62–2.790.25–4.86
Shots on target
25%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.304.697.99safe1.44–5.172.95–6.434.39–11.60safer0.95–5.662.48–6.903.43–12.55
Total shots
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4613.3324.79safe7.54–15.399.76–16.8917.30–32.28safer6.45–16.488.80–17.8515.25–34.33
Shots in box
21%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction6.459.0415.49safe3.51–9.396.36–11.729.87–21.11safer2.68–10.225.63–12.468.30–22.68
Blocked shots
41%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.303.416.71safe1.42–5.191.75–5.063.17–10.24safer0.88–5.731.26–5.552.14–11.28
Corners
29%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.135.279.40safe1.92–6.343.27–7.285.19–13.62safer1.34–6.922.74–7.814.08–14.73
Possession %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction42.1457.98safe35.35–48.9351.20–64.77safer33.68–50.6049.53–66.44
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction350473822safe282–417406–539689–956safer264–435389–557653–992
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction64.2573.29safe60.22–68.2868.97–77.61safer58.93–69.5767.66–78.92
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5314.3427.87safe10.70–16.3711.39–17.2822.09–33.65safer9.94–17.1310.64–18.0320.58–35.16
Offsides
23%
21%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.322.123.44safe0.16–2.481.02–3.211.18–5.69safer0.00–2.780.74–3.500.59–6.28
Yellow cards
45%
19%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.442.204.64safe1.39–3.491.07–3.332.46–6.82safer1.13–3.760.78–3.621.91–7.38
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.090.23safe0.00–0.290.00–0.280.00–0.57safer0.00–0.440.00–0.410.00–0.86
GK saves
53%
17%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.345.36safe1.58–4.450.79–3.902.37–8.35safer1.19–4.840.36–4.331.55–9.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.85 0.00–1.82 0.00–2.07 | 1.71 0.85–2.56 0.62–2.79 | 2.55 0.73–4.38 0.25–4.86 | 18% 24% 58% |
| Shots on target | 3.30 1.44–5.17 0.95–5.66 | 4.69 2.95–6.43 2.48–6.90 | 7.99 4.39–11.60 3.43–12.55 | 25% 62% |
| Total shots | 11.46 7.54–15.39 6.45–16.48 | 13.33 9.76–16.89 8.80–17.85 | 24.79 17.30–32.28 15.25–34.33 | 32% 61% |
| Shots in box | 6.45 3.51–9.39 2.68–10.22 | 9.04 6.36–11.72 5.63–12.46 | 15.49 9.87–21.11 8.30–22.68 | 21% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 1.42–5.19 0.88–5.73 | 3.41 1.75–5.06 1.26–5.55 | 6.71 3.17–10.24 2.14–11.28 | 41% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 4.13 1.92–6.34 1.34–6.92 | 5.27 3.27–7.28 2.74–7.81 | 9.40 5.19–13.62 4.08–14.73 | 29% 58% |
| Possession % | 42.14 35.35–48.93 33.68–50.60 | 57.98 51.20–64.77 49.53–66.44 | — | 16% 81% |
| Passes | 350 282–417 264–435 | 473 406–539 389–557 | 822 689–956 653–992 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.25 60.22–68.28 58.93–69.57 | 73.29 68.97–77.61 67.66–78.92 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 13.53 10.70–16.37 9.94–17.13 | 14.34 11.39–17.28 10.64–18.03 | 27.87 22.09–33.65 20.58–35.16 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.32 0.16–2.48 0.00–2.78 | 2.12 1.02–3.21 0.74–3.50 | 3.44 1.18–5.69 0.59–6.28 | 23% 21% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 2.44 1.39–3.49 1.13–3.76 | 2.20 1.07–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 4.64 2.46–6.82 1.91–7.38 | 45% 19% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.58–4.45 1.19–4.84 | 2.34 0.79–3.90 0.36–4.33 | 5.36 2.37–8.35 1.55–9.16 | 53% 17% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.