Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 13·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
86%
homeawaytotalprediction3.000.553.55safe2.03–3.970.00–1.411.73–5.38safer1.78–4.220.00–1.641.25–5.86
Shots on target
97%
homeawaytotalprediction8.001.969.96safe6.14–9.860.22–3.706.36–13.57safer5.65–10.350.00–4.175.40–14.52
Total shots
100%
homeawaytotalprediction20.756.7627.50safe16.82–24.673.19–10.3220.02–34.99safer15.73–25.762.23–11.2817.96–37.04
Shots in box
99%
homeawaytotalprediction13.683.6417.31safe10.73–16.620.96–6.3211.69–22.94safer9.90–17.450.22–7.0610.12–24.50
Blocked shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction4.971.466.44safe3.09–6.860.00–3.122.90–9.97safer2.55–7.400.00–3.611.87–11.01
Corners
95%
homeawaytotalprediction7.882.3110.19safe5.67–10.090.31–4.315.98–14.41safer5.09–10.670.00–4.854.87–15.51
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction65.7434.29safe58.95–72.5327.51–41.08safer57.28–74.2025.84–42.75
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction631331961safe563–698264–397828–1095safer545–716247–415792–1131
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction83.0269.58safe78.99–87.0565.26–73.91safer77.70–88.3463.95–75.22
Fouls
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8513.6224.47safe8.01–13.6910.68–16.5618.69–30.25safer7.26–14.459.93–17.3117.19–31.76
Offsides
52%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.142.92safe0.62–2.940.04–2.230.66–5.17safer0.32–3.240.00–2.520.07–5.76
Yellow cards
21%
19%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.372.373.75safe0.32–2.421.24–3.501.57–5.92safer0.06–2.690.95–3.791.01–6.48
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.150.21safe0.00–0.230.00–0.330.00–0.56safer0.00–0.380.00–0.470.00–0.84
GK saves
85%
homeawaytotalprediction1.634.646.28safe0.20–3.073.09–6.203.29–9.27safer0.00–3.462.66–6.622.47–10.08
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.00 2.03–3.97 1.78–4.22 | 0.55 0.00–1.41 0.00–1.64 | 3.55 1.73–5.38 1.25–5.86 | 86% |
| Shots on target | 8.00 6.14–9.86 5.65–10.35 | 1.96 0.22–3.70 0.00–4.17 | 9.96 6.36–13.57 5.40–14.52 | 97% |
| Total shots | 20.75 16.82–24.67 15.73–25.76 | 6.76 3.19–10.32 2.23–11.28 | 27.50 20.02–34.99 17.96–37.04 | 100% |
| Shots in box | 13.68 10.73–16.62 9.90–17.45 | 3.64 0.96–6.32 0.22–7.06 | 17.31 11.69–22.94 10.12–24.50 | 99% |
| Blocked shots | 4.97 3.09–6.86 2.55–7.40 | 1.46 0.00–3.12 0.00–3.61 | 6.44 2.90–9.97 1.87–11.01 | 89% |
| Corners | 7.88 5.67–10.09 5.09–10.67 | 2.31 0.31–4.31 0.00–4.85 | 10.19 5.98–14.41 4.87–15.51 | 95% |
| Possession % | 65.74 58.95–72.53 57.28–74.20 | 34.29 27.51–41.08 25.84–42.75 | — | 96% |
| Passes | 631 563–698 545–716 | 331 264–397 247–415 | 961 828–1095 792–1131 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.02 78.99–87.05 77.70–88.34 | 69.58 65.26–73.91 63.95–75.22 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 10.85 8.01–13.69 7.26–14.45 | 13.62 10.68–16.56 9.93–17.31 | 24.47 18.69–30.25 17.19–31.76 | 25% 68% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.32–3.24 | 1.14 0.04–2.23 0.00–2.52 | 2.92 0.66–5.17 0.07–5.76 | 52% 23% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.37 0.32–2.42 0.06–2.69 | 2.37 1.24–3.50 0.95–3.79 | 3.75 1.57–5.92 1.01–6.48 | 21% 19% 60% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 1.63 0.20–3.07 0.00–3.46 | 4.64 3.09–6.20 2.66–6.62 | 6.28 3.29–9.27 2.47–10.08 | 85% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+