Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 14·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
28%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.282.38safe0.14–2.070.42–2.130.56–4.21safer0.00–2.330.20–2.360.08–4.69
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.184.298.47safe2.31–6.042.55–6.044.87–12.08safer1.82–6.532.09–6.503.91–13.03
Total shots
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5413.6726.22safe8.62–16.4710.11–17.2418.73–33.70safer7.53–17.569.15–18.2016.68–35.75
Shots in box
39%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction7.518.1015.61safe4.57–10.455.42–10.789.99–21.23safer3.74–11.284.68–11.528.42–22.80
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.133.366.49safe1.25–5.021.70–5.012.96–10.03safer0.71–5.561.21–5.501.92–11.06
Corners
39%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.769.22safe2.24–6.672.76–6.765.01–13.43safer1.67–7.242.23–7.303.90–14.54
Possession %
38%
58%
homeawayprediction47.8752.07safe41.08–54.6645.28–58.85safer39.41–56.3343.61–60.52
Passes
39%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction420453873safe353–487387–520739–1007safer335–505369–537704–1042
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction70.4475.36safe66.41–74.4771.03–79.68safer65.12–75.7769.72–80.99
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7413.4826.22safe9.90–15.5810.54–16.4320.44–32.00safer9.14–16.339.79–17.1818.94–33.51
Offsides
47%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.423.21safe0.64–2.960.32–2.510.96–5.47safer0.34–3.260.03–2.800.37–6.06
Yellow cards
34%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.162.534.70safe1.12–3.211.40–3.662.52–6.87safer0.85–3.481.11–3.951.96–7.43
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.140.25safe0.00–0.270.00–0.320.00–0.59safer0.00–0.420.00–0.460.00–0.88
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.915.91safe1.57–4.441.35–4.462.92–8.90safer1.18–4.830.92–4.892.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.14–2.07 0.00–2.33 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.20–2.36 | 2.38 0.56–4.21 0.08–4.69 | 32% 28% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.18 2.31–6.04 1.82–6.53 | 4.29 2.55–6.04 2.09–6.50 | 8.47 4.87–12.08 3.91–13.03 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 12.54 8.62–16.47 7.53–17.56 | 13.67 10.11–17.24 9.15–18.20 | 26.22 18.73–33.70 16.68–35.75 | 37% 55% |
| Shots in box | 7.51 4.57–10.45 3.74–11.28 | 8.10 5.42–10.78 4.68–11.52 | 15.61 9.99–21.23 8.42–22.80 | 39% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 3.13 1.25–5.02 0.71–5.56 | 3.36 1.70–5.01 1.21–5.50 | 6.49 2.96–10.03 1.92–11.06 | 39% 16% 45% |
| Corners | 4.46 2.24–6.67 1.67–7.24 | 4.76 2.76–6.76 2.23–7.30 | 9.22 5.01–13.43 3.90–14.54 | 39% 13% 47% |
| Possession % | 47.87 41.08–54.66 39.41–56.33 | 52.07 45.28–58.85 43.61–60.52 | — | 38% 58% |
| Passes | 420 353–487 335–505 | 453 387–520 369–537 | 873 739–1007 704–1042 | 39% 61% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.44 66.41–74.47 65.12–75.77 | 75.36 71.03–79.68 69.72–80.99 | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 12.74 9.90–15.58 9.14–16.33 | 13.48 10.54–16.43 9.79–17.18 | 26.22 20.44–32.00 18.94–33.51 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.34–3.26 | 1.42 0.32–2.51 0.03–2.80 | 3.21 0.96–5.47 0.37–6.06 | 47% 23% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.12–3.21 0.85–3.48 | 2.53 1.40–3.66 1.11–3.95 | 4.70 2.52–6.87 1.96–7.43 | 34% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.57–4.44 1.18–4.83 | 2.91 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.89 | 5.91 2.92–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.