Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
27%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.022.41safe0.43–2.360.16–1.870.59–4.23safer0.17–2.610.00–2.100.11–4.71
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.693.698.38safe2.83–6.551.94–5.434.77–11.98safer2.34–7.041.48–5.903.82–12.94
Total shots
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2012.0526.25safe10.27–18.128.49–15.6118.76–33.74safer9.18–19.227.53–16.5716.71–35.79
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction8.626.6215.23safe5.68–11.563.93–9.309.61–20.86safer4.85–12.393.20–10.038.04–22.42
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.733.016.74safe1.85–5.611.36–4.663.20–10.27safer1.30–6.150.86–5.152.17–11.31
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.544.359.89safe3.32–7.752.35–6.355.68–14.11safer2.75–8.331.82–6.894.57–15.21
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction46.5354.08safe39.74–53.3247.30–60.87safer38.07–54.9945.62–62.54
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction366444811safe299–434378–511677–944safer281–452360–528641–980
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction67.1872.43safe63.15–71.2168.11–76.76safer61.85–72.5066.80–78.07
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3713.2626.63safe10.53–16.2010.32–16.2120.85–32.41safer9.77–16.969.57–16.9619.34–33.92
Offsides
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.363.05safe0.52–2.840.27–2.450.79–5.30safer0.22–3.150.00–2.740.20–5.89
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.152.264.41safe1.10–3.201.13–3.392.23–6.59safer0.83–3.460.84–3.681.67–7.14
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.110.24safe0.00–0.290.00–0.290.00–0.58safer0.00–0.440.00–0.430.00–0.87
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.633.365.99safe1.20–4.071.80–4.913.00–8.98safer0.81–4.461.38–5.342.19–9.79
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.43–2.36 0.17–2.61 | 1.02 0.16–1.87 0.00–2.10 | 2.41 0.59–4.23 0.11–4.71 | 46% 27% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.69 2.83–6.55 2.34–7.04 | 3.69 1.94–5.43 1.48–5.90 | 8.38 4.77–11.98 3.82–12.94 | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.20 10.27–18.12 9.18–19.22 | 12.05 8.49–15.61 7.53–16.57 | 26.25 18.76–33.74 16.71–35.79 | 63% 30% |
| Shots in box | 8.62 5.68–11.56 4.85–12.39 | 6.62 3.93–9.30 3.20–10.03 | 15.23 9.61–20.86 8.04–22.42 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.73 1.85–5.61 1.30–6.15 | 3.01 1.36–4.66 0.86–5.15 | 6.74 3.20–10.27 2.17–11.31 | 53% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.54 3.32–7.75 2.75–8.33 | 4.35 2.35–6.35 1.82–6.89 | 9.89 5.68–14.11 4.57–15.21 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 46.53 39.74–53.32 38.07–54.99 | 54.08 47.30–60.87 45.62–62.54 | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 366 299–434 281–452 | 444 378–511 360–528 | 811 677–944 641–980 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.18 63.15–71.21 61.85–72.50 | 72.43 68.11–76.76 66.80–78.07 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 13.37 10.53–16.20 9.77–16.96 | 13.26 10.32–16.21 9.57–16.96 | 26.63 20.85–32.41 19.34–33.92 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.68 0.52–2.84 0.22–3.15 | 1.36 0.27–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 3.05 0.79–5.30 0.20–5.89 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 2.15 1.10–3.20 0.83–3.46 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 4.41 2.23–6.59 1.67–7.14 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.63 1.20–4.07 0.81–4.46 | 3.36 1.80–4.91 1.38–5.34 | 5.99 3.00–8.98 2.19–9.79 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.