Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 14·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.402.75safe0.38–2.320.55–2.250.92–4.57safer0.13–2.570.32–2.480.45–5.05
Shots on target
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.573.888.44safe2.70–6.432.13–5.624.84–12.05safer2.22–6.921.67–6.093.88–13.00
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3311.8225.15safe9.40–17.258.26–15.3817.66–32.64safer8.31–18.347.30–16.3415.61–34.69
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction8.427.9716.39safe5.47–11.365.29–10.6510.76–22.01safer4.65–12.194.55–11.399.20–23.58
Blocked shots
52%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.492.856.34safe1.61–5.371.20–4.512.81–9.88safer1.06–5.910.71–5.001.77–10.91
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.514.9110.42safe3.30–7.722.91–6.916.21–14.63safer2.72–8.302.38–7.445.10–15.74
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction52.7347.81safe45.94–59.5241.03–54.60safer44.27–61.1939.36–56.27
Passes
67%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction461408870safe394–528342–475736–1003safer376–547324–492700–1039
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction69.1869.21safe65.15–73.2164.89–73.54safer63.86–74.5063.58–74.85
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0113.4526.47safe10.18–15.8510.51–16.4020.68–32.25safer9.42–16.619.76–17.1519.18–33.75
Offsides
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.043.87safe0.67–2.990.94–3.131.62–6.12safer0.37–3.300.66–3.421.03–6.71
Yellow cards
46%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.221.904.12safe1.17–3.270.77–3.031.94–6.30safer0.90–3.530.48–3.321.38–6.86
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.753.105.85safe1.32–4.191.54–4.652.85–8.84safer0.93–4.581.11–5.082.04–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.40 0.55–2.25 0.32–2.48 | 2.75 0.92–4.57 0.45–5.05 | 36% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.57 2.70–6.43 2.22–6.92 | 3.88 2.13–5.62 1.67–6.09 | 8.44 4.84–12.05 3.88–13.00 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Total shots | 13.33 9.40–17.25 8.31–18.34 | 11.82 8.26–15.38 7.30–16.34 | 25.15 17.66–32.64 15.61–34.69 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 8.42 5.47–11.36 4.65–12.19 | 7.97 5.29–10.65 4.55–11.39 | 16.39 10.76–22.01 9.20–23.58 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.61–5.37 1.06–5.91 | 2.85 1.20–4.51 0.71–5.00 | 6.34 2.81–9.88 1.77–10.91 | 52% 16% 32% |
| Corners | 5.51 3.30–7.72 2.72–8.30 | 4.91 2.91–6.91 2.38–7.44 | 10.42 6.21–14.63 5.10–15.74 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 52.73 45.94–59.52 44.27–61.19 | 47.81 41.03–54.60 39.36–56.27 | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 461 394–528 376–547 | 408 342–475 324–492 | 870 736–1003 700–1039 | 67% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.18 65.15–73.21 63.86–74.50 | 69.21 64.89–73.54 63.58–74.85 | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 13.01 10.18–15.85 9.42–16.61 | 13.45 10.51–16.40 9.76–17.15 | 26.47 20.68–32.25 19.18–33.75 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.30 | 2.04 0.94–3.13 0.66–3.42 | 3.87 1.62–6.12 1.03–6.71 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.22 1.17–3.27 0.90–3.53 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 4.12 1.94–6.30 1.38–6.86 | 46% 20% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.32–4.19 0.93–4.58 | 3.10 1.54–4.65 1.11–5.08 | 5.85 2.85–8.84 2.04–9.65 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.