Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 14·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction0.782.112.89safe0.00–1.751.26–2.971.07–4.71safer0.00–2.001.03–3.200.59–5.19
Shots on target
83%
homeawaytotalprediction2.806.108.90safe0.94–4.674.36–7.845.30–12.51safer0.45–5.153.89–8.314.34–13.46
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction9.0515.5724.63safe5.13–12.9812.01–19.1417.14–32.11safer4.04–14.0711.05–20.1015.09–34.17
Shots in box
90%
homeawaytotalprediction5.2210.7615.98safe2.28–8.168.08–13.4410.36–21.60safer1.45–8.997.34–14.188.79–23.17
Blocked shots
16%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction2.544.637.17safe0.65–4.422.98–6.293.63–10.70safer0.11–4.962.49–6.782.60–11.74
Corners
16%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction3.125.508.62safe0.90–5.333.50–7.504.40–12.83safer0.33–5.902.97–8.043.30–13.94
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction37.5662.11safe30.77–44.3555.32–68.89safer29.10–46.0253.65–70.57
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction368601969safe301–436534–667835–1103safer283–454517–685799–1138
Pass accuracy %
97%
homeawayprediction67.9583.31safe63.93–71.9878.99–87.64safer62.63–73.2877.68–88.95
Fouls
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7511.7625.52safe10.92–16.598.82–14.7119.74–31.30safer10.16–17.358.07–15.4618.23–32.80
Offsides
33%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.582.97safe0.22–2.540.49–2.680.72–5.22safer0.00–2.850.20–2.970.13–5.81
Yellow cards
58%
18%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.641.714.35safe1.59–3.690.58–2.842.17–6.52safer1.32–3.950.29–3.131.61–7.08
Red cards
15%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.180.090.27safe0.02–0.340.00–0.270.00–0.61safer0.00–0.490.00–0.410.00–0.90
GK saves
69%
13%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction3.802.115.91safe2.37–5.240.56–3.672.92–8.91safer1.98–5.630.13–4.092.11–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.78 0.00–1.75 0.00–2.00 | 2.11 1.26–2.97 1.03–3.20 | 2.89 1.07–4.71 0.59–5.19 | 19% 68% |
| Shots on target | 2.80 0.94–4.67 0.45–5.15 | 6.10 4.36–7.84 3.89–8.31 | 8.90 5.30–12.51 4.34–13.46 | 83% |
| Total shots | 9.05 5.13–12.98 4.04–14.07 | 15.57 12.01–19.14 11.05–20.10 | 24.63 17.14–32.11 15.09–34.17 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 5.22 2.28–8.16 1.45–8.99 | 10.76 8.08–13.44 7.34–14.18 | 15.98 10.36–21.60 8.79–23.17 | 90% |
| Blocked shots | 2.54 0.65–4.42 0.11–4.96 | 4.63 2.98–6.29 2.49–6.78 | 7.17 3.63–10.70 2.60–11.74 | 16% 72% |
| Corners | 3.12 0.90–5.33 0.33–5.90 | 5.50 3.50–7.50 2.97–8.04 | 8.62 4.40–12.83 3.30–13.94 | 16% 74% |
| Possession % | 37.56 30.77–44.35 29.10–46.02 | 62.11 55.32–68.89 53.65–70.57 | — | 92% |
| Passes | 368 301–436 283–454 | 601 534–667 517–685 | 969 835–1103 799–1138 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.95 63.93–71.98 62.63–73.28 | 83.31 78.99–87.64 77.68–88.95 | — | 97% |
| Fouls | 13.75 10.92–16.59 10.16–17.35 | 11.76 8.82–14.71 8.07–15.46 | 25.52 19.74–31.30 18.23–32.80 | 62% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.85 | 1.58 0.49–2.68 0.20–2.97 | 2.97 0.72–5.22 0.13–5.81 | 33% 24% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.64 1.59–3.69 1.32–3.95 | 1.71 0.58–2.84 0.29–3.13 | 4.35 2.17–6.52 1.61–7.08 | 58% 18% 24% |
| Red cards | 0.18 0.02–0.34 0.00–0.49 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.27 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.90 | 15% 78% |
| GK saves | 3.80 2.37–5.24 1.98–5.63 | 2.11 0.56–3.67 0.13–4.09 | 5.91 2.92–8.91 2.11–9.72 | 69% 13% 18% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.