Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
28%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.062.35safe0.32–2.260.21–1.910.53–4.17safer0.07–2.510.00–2.140.05–4.65
Shots on target
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.563.668.21safe2.70–6.421.91–5.404.61–11.82safer2.21–6.911.45–5.873.65–12.78
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7911.2925.08safe9.87–17.727.73–14.8517.59–32.57safer8.78–18.816.77–15.8115.54–34.62
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction8.456.8715.32safe5.51–11.394.19–9.559.70–20.94safer4.68–12.223.45–10.298.13–22.51
Blocked shots
55%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.532.706.23safe1.65–5.411.05–4.362.70–9.77safer1.10–5.950.56–4.851.66–10.80
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.024.699.70safe2.80–7.232.69–6.695.49–13.92safer2.23–7.802.15–7.224.38–15.02
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.5250.24safe42.73–56.3143.46–57.03safer41.06–57.9841.78–58.70
Passes
50%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction423421844safe356–490354–487710–977safer337–508337–505674–1013
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction70.5172.31safe66.48–74.5467.99–76.63safer65.19–75.8366.68–77.94
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0312.7426.77safe11.19–16.879.80–15.6920.99–32.55safer10.43–17.629.05–16.4419.48–34.06
Offsides
35%
25%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.502.88safe0.22–2.540.41–2.600.62–5.13safer0.00–2.840.12–2.880.03–5.72
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.214.17safe0.91–3.011.09–3.342.00–6.35safer0.64–3.280.79–3.631.44–6.91
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.140.24safe0.00–0.260.00–0.330.00–0.59safer0.00–0.410.00–0.460.00–0.87
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.693.275.97safe1.26–4.131.72–4.832.98–8.96safer0.87–4.521.29–5.262.16–9.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.32–2.26 0.07–2.51 | 1.06 0.21–1.91 0.00–2.14 | 2.35 0.53–4.17 0.05–4.65 | 42% 28% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.56 2.70–6.42 2.21–6.91 | 3.66 1.91–5.40 1.45–5.87 | 8.21 4.61–11.82 3.65–12.78 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Total shots | 13.79 9.87–17.72 8.78–18.81 | 11.29 7.73–14.85 6.77–15.81 | 25.08 17.59–32.57 15.54–34.62 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 8.45 5.51–11.39 4.68–12.22 | 6.87 4.19–9.55 3.45–10.29 | 15.32 9.70–20.94 8.13–22.51 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 3.53 1.65–5.41 1.10–5.95 | 2.70 1.05–4.36 0.56–4.85 | 6.23 2.70–9.77 1.66–10.80 | 55% 16% 30% |
| Corners | 5.02 2.80–7.23 2.23–7.80 | 4.69 2.69–6.69 2.15–7.22 | 9.70 5.49–13.92 4.38–15.02 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 49.52 42.73–56.31 41.06–57.98 | 50.24 43.46–57.03 41.78–58.70 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 423 356–490 337–508 | 421 354–487 337–505 | 844 710–977 674–1013 | 50% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.51 66.48–74.54 65.19–75.83 | 72.31 67.99–76.63 66.68–77.94 | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 14.03 11.19–16.87 10.43–17.62 | 12.74 9.80–15.69 9.05–16.44 | 26.77 20.99–32.55 19.48–34.06 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.84 | 1.50 0.41–2.60 0.12–2.88 | 2.88 0.62–5.13 0.03–5.72 | 35% 25% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.01 0.64–3.28 | 2.21 1.09–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 4.17 2.00–6.35 1.44–6.91 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.26–4.13 0.87–4.52 | 3.27 1.72–4.83 1.29–5.26 | 5.97 2.98–8.96 2.16–9.77 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.