Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 14·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
27%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.031.432.46safe0.06–2.000.57–2.280.64–4.28safer0.00–2.250.34–2.510.16–4.76
Shots on target
33%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.624.317.93safe1.76–5.492.57–6.054.33–11.54safer1.27–5.982.10–6.523.37–12.49
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6612.0723.73safe7.73–15.588.51–15.6316.24–31.22safer6.64–16.687.55–16.5914.19–33.27
Shots in box
29%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction6.578.1614.73safe3.63–9.515.48–10.859.11–20.36safer2.80–10.344.75–11.587.54–21.92
Blocked shots
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.743.266.00safe0.86–4.621.61–4.912.47–9.54safer0.31–5.161.12–5.411.43–10.57
Corners
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.965.359.31safe1.75–6.173.35–7.355.10–13.52safer1.17–6.752.82–7.883.99–14.63
Possession %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction42.4657.62safe35.67–49.2550.84–64.41safer34.00–50.9249.17–66.08
Passes
21%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction367463829safe300–434396–529696–963safer281–452379–547660–999
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction66.2274.76safe62.19–70.2570.43–79.08safer60.90–71.5469.13–80.39
Fouls
52%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8414.1028.93safe12.00–17.6711.15–17.0423.15–34.71safer11.24–18.4310.40–17.7921.64–36.22
Offsides
27%
22%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.973.33safe0.21–2.530.87–3.061.08–5.59safer0.00–2.830.58–3.350.49–6.18
Yellow cards
47%
18%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.802.475.27safe1.75–3.841.34–3.603.09–7.44safer1.48–4.111.05–3.892.53–8.00
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.110.26safe0.00–0.310.00–0.300.00–0.61safer0.00–0.460.00–0.430.00–0.89
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.912.605.51safe1.47–4.341.04–4.152.51–8.50safer1.09–4.730.62–4.581.70–9.31
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.06–2.00 0.00–2.25 | 1.43 0.57–2.28 0.34–2.51 | 2.46 0.64–4.28 0.16–4.76 | 27% 27% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.62 1.76–5.49 1.27–5.98 | 4.31 2.57–6.05 2.10–6.52 | 7.93 4.33–11.54 3.37–12.49 | 33% 14% 52% |
| Total shots | 11.66 7.73–15.58 6.64–16.68 | 12.07 8.51–15.63 7.55–16.59 | 23.73 16.24–31.22 14.19–33.27 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 6.57 3.63–9.51 2.80–10.34 | 8.16 5.48–10.85 4.75–11.58 | 14.73 9.11–20.36 7.54–21.92 | 29% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 2.74 0.86–4.62 0.31–5.16 | 3.26 1.61–4.91 1.12–5.41 | 6.00 2.47–9.54 1.43–10.57 | 34% 16% 50% |
| Corners | 3.96 1.75–6.17 1.17–6.75 | 5.35 3.35–7.35 2.82–7.88 | 9.31 5.10–13.52 3.99–14.63 | 27% 61% |
| Possession % | 42.46 35.67–49.25 34.00–50.92 | 57.62 50.84–64.41 49.17–66.08 | — | 17% 80% |
| Passes | 367 300–434 281–452 | 463 396–529 379–547 | 829 696–963 660–999 | 21% 79% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.22 62.19–70.25 60.90–71.54 | 74.76 70.43–79.08 69.13–80.39 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 14.84 12.00–17.67 11.24–18.43 | 14.10 11.15–17.04 10.40–17.79 | 28.93 23.15–34.71 21.64–36.22 | 52% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.37 0.21–2.53 0.00–2.83 | 1.97 0.87–3.06 0.58–3.35 | 3.33 1.08–5.59 0.49–6.18 | 27% 22% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 2.80 1.75–3.84 1.48–4.11 | 2.47 1.34–3.60 1.05–3.89 | 5.27 3.09–7.44 2.53–8.00 | 47% 18% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.47–4.34 1.09–4.73 | 2.60 1.04–4.15 0.62–4.58 | 5.51 2.51–8.50 1.70–9.31 | 47% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.