Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 14·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
26%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.560.902.45safe0.59–2.520.04–1.750.63–4.28safer0.34–2.780.00–1.980.15–4.76
Shots on target
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.573.068.63safe3.71–7.431.31–4.805.02–12.23safer3.22–7.920.85–5.264.07–13.19
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction16.219.5625.78safe12.29–20.146.00–13.1218.29–33.26safer11.20–21.235.04–14.0816.24–35.31
Shots in box
79%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction9.485.8215.30safe6.54–12.423.14–8.509.68–20.93safer5.71–13.252.40–9.248.11–22.49
Blocked shots
77%
homeawaytotalprediction4.522.146.66safe2.64–6.400.49–3.793.13–10.20safer2.10–6.950.00–4.292.09–11.23
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.403.7510.15safe4.19–8.611.75–5.755.94–14.37safer3.61–9.191.22–6.294.83–15.47
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction59.1641.28safe52.37–65.9534.49–48.06safer50.70–67.6232.82–49.73
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction495328823safe428–563261–394689–957safer410–581244–412654–993
Pass accuracy %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction73.0466.65safe69.01–77.0762.33–70.97safer67.72–78.3661.02–72.28
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5213.2626.79safe10.69–16.3610.32–16.2121.00–32.57safer9.93–17.129.57–16.9619.50–34.07
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.893.64safe0.59–2.910.80–2.981.39–5.90safer0.29–3.210.51–3.270.80–6.49
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.194.13safe0.89–2.991.06–3.321.95–6.31safer0.63–3.260.77–3.611.40–6.87
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.120.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.82
GK saves
19%
14%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.203.816.01safe0.76–3.632.25–5.373.02–9.00safer0.37–4.021.83–5.792.20–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.59–2.52 0.34–2.78 | 0.90 0.04–1.75 0.00–1.98 | 2.45 0.63–4.28 0.15–4.76 | 53% 26% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.57 3.71–7.43 3.22–7.92 | 3.06 1.31–4.80 0.85–5.26 | 8.63 5.02–12.23 4.07–13.19 | 75% 15% |
| Total shots | 16.21 12.29–20.14 11.20–21.23 | 9.56 6.00–13.12 5.04–14.08 | 25.78 18.29–33.26 16.24–35.31 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 9.48 6.54–12.42 5.71–13.25 | 5.82 3.14–8.50 2.40–9.24 | 15.30 9.68–20.93 8.11–22.49 | 79% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 4.52 2.64–6.40 2.10–6.95 | 2.14 0.49–3.79 0.00–4.29 | 6.66 3.13–10.20 2.09–11.23 | 77% |
| Corners | 6.40 4.19–8.61 3.61–9.19 | 3.75 1.75–5.75 1.22–6.29 | 10.15 5.94–14.37 4.83–15.47 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 59.16 52.37–65.95 50.70–67.62 | 41.28 34.49–48.06 32.82–49.73 | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 495 428–563 410–581 | 328 261–394 244–412 | 823 689–957 654–993 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.04 69.01–77.07 67.72–78.36 | 66.65 62.33–70.97 61.02–72.28 | — | 78% 19% |
| Fouls | 13.52 10.69–16.36 9.93–17.12 | 13.26 10.32–16.21 9.57–16.96 | 26.79 21.00–32.57 19.50–34.07 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.29–3.21 | 1.89 0.80–2.98 0.51–3.27 | 3.64 1.39–5.90 0.80–6.49 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.89–2.99 0.63–3.26 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 4.13 1.95–6.31 1.40–6.87 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.20 0.76–3.63 0.37–4.02 | 3.81 2.25–5.37 1.83–5.79 | 6.01 3.02–9.00 2.20–9.81 | 19% 14% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.