Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 15·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
28%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.121.262.38safe0.16–2.090.41–2.110.56–4.21safer0.00–2.340.18–2.340.08–4.69
Shots on target
38%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.814.157.96safe1.95–5.682.40–5.894.35–11.57safer1.46–6.171.94–6.363.40–12.52
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0512.1725.21safe9.12–16.978.60–15.7317.72–32.70safer8.03–18.067.64–16.6915.67–34.75
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction7.867.7815.64safe4.92–10.815.09–10.4610.02–21.26safer4.09–11.634.36–11.198.45–22.83
Blocked shots
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.422.916.33safe1.54–5.311.26–4.562.80–9.87safer1.00–5.850.76–5.051.76–10.90
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.054.329.36safe2.84–7.262.32–6.325.15–13.58safer2.26–7.841.78–6.854.04–14.69
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.2554.59safe38.46–52.0447.81–61.38safer36.79–53.7146.14–63.05
Passes
23%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction399485884safe332–466419–551750–1018safer314–484401–569715–1053
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction67.8573.65safe63.82–71.8869.33–77.97safer62.53–73.1868.02–79.28
Fouls
54%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7512.7926.54safe10.91–16.599.85–15.7420.76–32.32safer10.16–17.359.10–16.4819.26–33.83
Offsides
40%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.533.13safe0.44–2.760.44–2.630.88–5.39safer0.14–3.060.15–2.910.29–5.98
Yellow cards
39%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.883.72safe0.79–2.890.75–3.011.54–5.90safer0.53–3.160.46–3.300.98–6.46
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
43%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.682.595.27safe1.24–4.121.04–4.152.28–8.26safer0.86–4.500.61–4.571.47–9.08
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 0.16–2.09 0.00–2.34 | 1.26 0.41–2.11 0.18–2.34 | 2.38 0.56–4.21 0.08–4.69 | 33% 28% 39% |
| Shots on target | 3.81 1.95–5.68 1.46–6.17 | 4.15 2.40–5.89 1.94–6.36 | 7.96 4.35–11.57 3.40–12.52 | 38% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 13.05 9.12–16.97 8.03–18.06 | 12.17 8.60–15.73 7.64–16.69 | 25.21 17.72–32.70 15.67–34.75 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 7.86 4.92–10.81 4.09–11.63 | 7.78 5.09–10.46 4.36–11.19 | 15.64 10.02–21.26 8.45–22.83 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.42 1.54–5.31 1.00–5.85 | 2.91 1.26–4.56 0.76–5.05 | 6.33 2.80–9.87 1.76–10.90 | 50% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.84–7.26 2.26–7.84 | 4.32 2.32–6.32 1.78–6.85 | 9.36 5.15–13.58 4.04–14.69 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 45.25 38.46–52.04 36.79–53.71 | 54.59 47.81–61.38 46.14–63.05 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 399 332–466 314–484 | 485 419–551 401–569 | 884 750–1018 715–1053 | 23% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.85 63.82–71.88 62.53–73.18 | 73.65 69.33–77.97 68.02–79.28 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 13.75 10.91–16.59 10.16–17.35 | 12.79 9.85–15.74 9.10–16.48 | 26.54 20.76–32.32 19.26–33.83 | 54% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.06 | 1.53 0.44–2.63 0.15–2.91 | 3.13 0.88–5.39 0.29–5.98 | 40% 24% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.79–2.89 0.53–3.16 | 1.88 0.75–3.01 0.46–3.30 | 3.72 1.54–5.90 0.98–6.46 | 39% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.24–4.12 0.86–4.50 | 2.59 1.04–4.15 0.61–4.57 | 5.27 2.28–8.26 1.47–9.08 | 43% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+