Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.122.58safe0.48–2.420.27–1.980.75–4.40safer0.23–2.670.04–2.210.27–4.88
Shots on target
55%
13%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.793.938.72safe2.93–6.652.19–5.685.12–12.33safer2.44–7.141.73–6.144.16–13.28
Total shots
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0611.8526.91safe11.14–18.998.29–15.4119.42–34.40safer10.04–20.087.33–16.3717.37–36.45
Shots in box
67%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction9.617.3316.94safe6.67–12.564.65–10.0111.32–22.57safer5.84–13.393.91–10.759.75–24.13
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.072.886.95safe2.18–5.951.23–4.543.42–10.49safer1.64–6.490.74–5.032.38–11.52
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.534.129.64safe3.31–7.742.12–6.125.43–13.86safer2.74–8.311.58–6.654.32–14.96
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction59.1441.24safe52.35–65.9334.46–48.03safer50.68–67.6032.79–49.70
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction486325811safe419–553259–392677–945safer400–571241–409641–980
Pass accuracy %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction73.1169.92safe69.08–77.1465.60–74.25safer67.79–78.4364.29–75.56
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8713.1827.05safe11.04–16.7110.24–16.1321.27–32.84safer10.28–17.479.49–16.8719.77–34.34
Offsides
30%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.783.18safe0.24–2.560.69–2.880.93–5.44safer0.00–2.860.40–3.160.34–6.03
Yellow cards
37%
19%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.534.84safe1.26–3.351.40–3.662.66–7.02safer0.99–3.621.11–3.952.10–7.57
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.140.26safe0.00–0.280.00–0.330.00–0.61safer0.00–0.430.00–0.460.00–0.89
GK saves
30%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.315.89safe1.14–4.011.75–4.862.89–8.88safer0.75–4.401.33–5.292.08–9.69
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.48–2.42 0.23–2.67 | 1.12 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 2.58 0.75–4.40 0.27–4.88 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.79 2.93–6.65 2.44–7.14 | 3.93 2.19–5.68 1.73–6.14 | 8.72 5.12–12.33 4.16–13.28 | 55% 13% 32% |
| Total shots | 15.06 11.14–18.99 10.04–20.08 | 11.85 8.29–15.41 7.33–16.37 | 26.91 19.42–34.40 17.37–36.45 | 70% 24% |
| Shots in box | 9.61 6.67–12.56 5.84–13.39 | 7.33 4.65–10.01 3.91–10.75 | 16.94 11.32–22.57 9.75–24.13 | 67% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 4.07 2.18–5.95 1.64–6.49 | 2.88 1.23–4.54 0.74–5.03 | 6.95 3.42–10.49 2.38–11.52 | 60% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 5.53 3.31–7.74 2.74–8.31 | 4.12 2.12–6.12 1.58–6.65 | 9.64 5.43–13.86 4.32–14.96 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 59.14 52.35–65.93 50.68–67.60 | 41.24 34.46–48.03 32.79–49.70 | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 486 419–553 400–571 | 325 259–392 241–409 | 811 677–945 641–980 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.11 69.08–77.14 67.79–78.43 | 69.92 65.60–74.25 64.29–75.56 | — | 64% 32% |
| Fouls | 13.87 11.04–16.71 10.28–17.47 | 13.18 10.24–16.13 9.49–16.87 | 27.05 21.27–32.84 19.77–34.34 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.40 0.24–2.56 0.00–2.86 | 1.78 0.69–2.88 0.40–3.16 | 3.18 0.93–5.44 0.34–6.03 | 30% 23% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.26–3.35 0.99–3.62 | 2.53 1.40–3.66 1.11–3.95 | 4.84 2.66–7.02 2.10–7.57 | 37% 19% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.31 1.75–4.86 1.33–5.29 | 5.89 2.89–8.88 2.08–9.69 | 30% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.