Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 15·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
61%
23%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.800.822.62safe0.84–2.770.00–1.680.80–4.45safer0.58–3.020.00–1.900.32–4.93
Shots on target
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.512.758.26safe3.65–7.371.01–4.494.66–11.87safer3.16–7.860.54–4.963.70–12.82
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction16.439.0425.47safe12.50–20.355.48–12.6017.98–32.96safer11.41–21.454.52–13.5615.93–35.01
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction10.235.0415.27safe7.28–13.172.36–7.729.64–20.89safer6.46–14.001.62–8.468.08–22.46
Blocked shots
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.332.717.04safe2.45–6.211.06–4.363.50–10.57safer1.90–6.760.56–4.852.47–11.61
Corners
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.983.079.05safe3.76–8.191.07–5.074.83–13.26safer3.19–8.760.54–5.603.73–14.37
Possession %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction57.6842.06safe50.89–64.4735.28–48.85safer49.22–66.1433.61–50.52
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction572406978safe505–639340–473845–1112safer487–657322–490809–1148
Pass accuracy %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction76.3971.08safe72.36–80.4266.75–75.40safer71.07–81.7165.44–76.71
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3912.3424.73safe9.55–15.239.40–15.2918.95–30.52safer8.80–15.988.65–16.0417.45–32.02
Offsides
46%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.373.08safe0.55–2.870.27–2.460.82–5.33safer0.25–3.170.00–2.750.23–5.92
Yellow cards
32%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.722.133.86safe0.67–2.771.00–3.261.68–6.03safer0.41–3.040.71–3.551.12–6.59
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.130.22safe0.00–0.250.00–0.320.00–0.57safer0.00–0.400.00–0.450.00–0.85
GK saves
20%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.103.555.64safe0.66–3.531.99–5.102.65–8.64safer0.27–3.921.57–5.531.84–9.45
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 0.84–2.77 0.58–3.02 | 0.82 0.00–1.68 0.00–1.90 | 2.62 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.93 | 61% 23% 17% |
| Shots on target | 5.51 3.65–7.37 3.16–7.86 | 2.75 1.01–4.49 0.54–4.96 | 8.26 4.66–11.87 3.70–12.82 | 79% |
| Total shots | 16.43 12.50–20.35 11.41–21.45 | 9.04 5.48–12.60 4.52–13.56 | 25.47 17.98–32.96 15.93–35.01 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 10.23 7.28–13.17 6.46–14.00 | 5.04 2.36–7.72 1.62–8.46 | 15.27 9.64–20.89 8.08–22.46 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.33 2.45–6.21 1.90–6.76 | 2.71 1.06–4.36 0.56–4.85 | 7.04 3.50–10.57 2.47–11.61 | 66% 21% |
| Corners | 5.98 3.76–8.19 3.19–8.76 | 3.07 1.07–5.07 0.54–5.60 | 9.05 4.83–13.26 3.73–14.37 | 79% |
| Possession % | 57.68 50.89–64.47 49.22–66.14 | 42.06 35.28–48.85 33.61–50.52 | — | 81% 16% |
| Passes | 572 505–639 487–657 | 406 340–473 322–490 | 978 845–1112 809–1148 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.39 72.36–80.42 71.07–81.71 | 71.08 66.75–75.40 65.44–76.71 | — | 73% 23% |
| Fouls | 12.39 9.55–15.23 8.80–15.98 | 12.34 9.40–15.29 8.65–16.04 | 24.73 18.95–30.52 17.45–32.02 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.25–3.17 | 1.37 0.27–2.46 0.00–2.75 | 3.08 0.82–5.33 0.23–5.92 | 46% 24% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.77 0.41–3.04 | 2.13 1.00–3.26 0.71–3.55 | 3.86 1.68–6.03 1.12–6.59 | 32% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.10 0.66–3.53 0.27–3.92 | 3.55 1.99–5.10 1.57–5.53 | 5.64 2.65–8.64 1.84–9.45 | 20% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+