Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 15·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
30%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.061.052.11safe0.09–2.030.19–1.900.29–3.93safer0.00–2.280.00–2.130.00–4.41
Shots on target
52%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.203.527.72safe2.33–6.061.78–5.264.11–11.32safer1.84–6.551.31–5.733.16–12.28
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8410.6424.48safe9.92–17.777.08–14.2016.99–31.97safer8.83–18.866.12–15.1614.94–34.02
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.337.3615.69safe5.39–11.274.67–10.0410.06–21.31safer4.56–12.103.94–10.778.50–22.88
Blocked shots
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.382.886.26safe1.50–5.261.23–4.542.73–9.80safer0.95–5.800.74–5.031.69–10.83
Corners
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.884.139.02safe2.67–7.102.13–6.134.80–13.23safer2.10–7.671.60–6.673.70–14.34
Possession %
74%
23%
homeawayprediction55.8844.16safe49.09–62.6737.37–50.94safer47.42–64.3435.70–52.62
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction459370828safe391–526303–436695–962safer373–544286–454659–998
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction71.5670.37safe67.53–75.5966.05–74.69safer66.24–76.8864.74–76.00
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9713.4227.39safe11.13–16.8010.48–16.3721.61–33.17safer10.37–17.569.73–17.1220.10–34.68
Offsides
45%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.563.43safe0.71–3.030.47–2.651.18–5.68safer0.41–3.330.18–2.940.59–6.27
Yellow cards
29%
18%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.654.61safe0.91–3.011.52–3.782.43–6.79safer0.64–3.281.23–4.071.87–7.34
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.150.27safe0.00–0.290.00–0.330.00–0.62safer0.00–0.440.00–0.470.00–0.90
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.503.045.54safe1.07–3.941.48–4.592.55–8.53safer0.68–4.331.06–5.021.74–9.35
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.06 0.09–2.03 0.00–2.28 | 1.05 0.19–1.90 0.00–2.13 | 2.11 0.29–3.93 0.00–4.41 | 35% 30% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.20 2.33–6.06 1.84–6.55 | 3.52 1.78–5.26 1.31–5.73 | 7.72 4.11–11.32 3.16–12.28 | 52% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 13.84 9.92–17.77 8.83–18.86 | 10.64 7.08–14.20 6.12–15.16 | 24.48 16.99–31.97 14.94–34.02 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 8.33 5.39–11.27 4.56–12.10 | 7.36 4.67–10.04 3.94–10.77 | 15.69 10.06–21.31 8.50–22.88 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.50–5.26 0.95–5.80 | 2.88 1.23–4.54 0.74–5.03 | 6.26 2.73–9.80 1.69–10.83 | 50% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 4.88 2.67–7.10 2.10–7.67 | 4.13 2.13–6.13 1.60–6.67 | 9.02 4.80–13.23 3.70–14.34 | 53% 13% 34% |
| Possession % | 55.88 49.09–62.67 47.42–64.34 | 44.16 37.37–50.94 35.70–52.62 | — | 74% 23% |
| Passes | 459 391–526 373–544 | 370 303–436 286–454 | 828 695–962 659–998 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.56 67.53–75.59 66.24–76.88 | 70.37 66.05–74.69 64.74–76.00 | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 13.97 11.13–16.80 10.37–17.56 | 13.42 10.48–16.37 9.73–17.12 | 27.39 21.61–33.17 20.10–34.68 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.41–3.33 | 1.56 0.47–2.65 0.18–2.94 | 3.43 1.18–5.68 0.59–6.27 | 45% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.01 0.64–3.28 | 2.65 1.52–3.78 1.23–4.07 | 4.61 2.43–6.79 1.87–7.34 | 29% 18% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.07–3.94 0.68–4.33 | 3.04 1.48–4.59 1.06–5.02 | 5.54 2.55–8.53 1.74–9.35 | 33% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.