Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 15·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
27%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.392.54safe0.19–2.120.54–2.240.72–4.37safer0.00–2.370.31–2.470.24–4.85
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.004.388.38safe2.14–5.862.64–6.124.77–11.98safer1.65–6.352.17–6.593.82–12.94
Total shots
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7812.4925.27safe8.86–16.718.93–16.0517.79–32.76safer7.77–17.807.97–17.0115.73–34.81
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction8.077.8315.90safe5.13–11.015.15–10.5210.28–21.53safer4.30–11.844.42–11.258.71–23.09
Blocked shots
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.232.846.07safe1.35–5.111.18–4.492.53–9.60safer0.80–5.660.69–4.981.50–10.64
Corners
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.815.109.92safe2.60–7.023.10–7.105.70–14.13safer2.02–7.602.57–7.644.60–15.24
Possession %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction47.1651.67safe40.37–53.9544.88–58.45safer38.70–55.6243.21–60.12
Passes
42%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction390415805safe323–457349–481671–939safer305–475331–499636–974
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction67.1071.17safe63.07–71.1366.85–75.49safer61.78–72.4265.54–76.80
Fouls
21%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0215.8027.82safe9.19–14.8612.86–18.7522.04–33.61safer8.43–15.6212.11–19.4920.54–35.11
Offsides
46%
21%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.703.74safe0.88–3.200.61–2.801.49–6.00safer0.58–3.500.32–3.080.90–6.58
Yellow cards
27%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.494.23safe0.69–2.791.36–3.622.05–6.41safer0.43–3.061.07–3.911.49–6.97
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.130.23safe0.00–0.260.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.410.00–0.450.00–0.86
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.882.785.66safe1.44–4.321.23–4.342.67–8.66safer1.06–4.700.80–4.761.86–9.47
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.19–2.12 0.00–2.37 | 1.39 0.54–2.24 0.31–2.47 | 2.54 0.72–4.37 0.24–4.85 | 31% 27% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.00 2.14–5.86 1.65–6.35 | 4.38 2.64–6.12 2.17–6.59 | 8.38 4.77–11.98 3.82–12.94 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.78 8.86–16.71 7.77–17.80 | 12.49 8.93–16.05 7.97–17.01 | 25.27 17.79–32.76 15.73–34.81 | 48% 44% |
| Shots in box | 8.07 5.13–11.01 4.30–11.84 | 7.83 5.15–10.52 4.42–11.25 | 15.90 10.28–21.53 8.71–23.09 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.23 1.35–5.11 0.80–5.66 | 2.84 1.18–4.49 0.69–4.98 | 6.07 2.53–9.60 1.50–10.64 | 48% 16% 36% |
| Corners | 4.81 2.60–7.02 2.02–7.60 | 5.10 3.10–7.10 2.57–7.64 | 9.92 5.70–14.13 4.60–15.24 | 40% 47% |
| Possession % | 47.16 40.37–53.95 38.70–55.62 | 51.67 44.88–58.45 43.21–60.12 | — | 37% 58% |
| Passes | 390 323–457 305–475 | 415 349–481 331–499 | 805 671–939 636–974 | 42% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.10 63.07–71.13 61.78–72.42 | 71.17 66.85–75.49 65.54–76.80 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 12.02 9.19–14.86 8.43–15.62 | 15.80 12.86–18.75 12.11–19.49 | 27.82 22.04–33.61 20.54–35.11 | 21% 73% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.88–3.20 0.58–3.50 | 1.70 0.61–2.80 0.32–3.08 | 3.74 1.49–6.00 0.90–6.58 | 46% 21% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.69–2.79 0.43–3.06 | 2.49 1.36–3.62 1.07–3.91 | 4.23 2.05–6.41 1.49–6.97 | 27% 19% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.44–4.32 1.06–4.70 | 2.78 1.23–4.34 0.80–4.76 | 5.66 2.67–8.66 1.86–9.47 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.