Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 15·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
82%
homeawaytotalprediction2.840.643.48safe1.87–3.810.00–1.491.66–5.30safer1.62–4.060.00–1.721.18–5.78
Shots on target
93%
homeawaytotalprediction7.542.459.99safe5.68–9.400.71–4.206.39–13.60safer5.19–9.890.25–4.665.43–14.55
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction19.237.4326.67safe15.31–23.163.87–11.0019.18–34.15safer14.22–24.252.91–11.9617.13–36.20
Shots in box
98%
homeawaytotalprediction13.184.1217.29safe10.23–16.121.43–6.8011.67–22.92safer9.41–16.950.70–7.5310.10–24.48
Blocked shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction4.761.706.46safe2.87–6.640.05–3.352.92–9.99safer2.33–7.180.00–3.841.88–11.03
Corners
92%
homeawaytotalprediction7.262.509.76safe5.04–9.470.50–4.505.55–13.97safer4.47–10.040.00–5.044.44–15.08
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction63.1236.09safe56.33–69.9129.30–42.87safer54.66–71.5827.63–44.54
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction618352970safe551–685286–419836–1104safer532–703268–436801–1139
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction82.7569.91safe78.72–86.7865.59–74.24safer77.42–88.0764.28–75.55
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9112.7823.69safe8.07–13.759.84–15.7317.91–29.47safer7.31–14.509.09–16.4716.40–30.98
Offsides
62%
20%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.153.40safe1.08–3.400.06–2.251.14–5.65safer0.78–3.710.00–2.540.56–6.24
Yellow cards
21%
19%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.362.393.75safe0.31–2.411.26–3.521.57–5.93safer0.05–2.680.97–3.811.01–6.49
Red cards
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.150.21safe0.00–0.220.00–0.340.00–0.56safer0.00–0.370.00–0.470.00–0.84
GK saves
83%
homeawaytotalprediction1.784.696.47safe0.34–3.213.14–6.253.48–9.46safer0.00–3.602.71–6.672.66–10.27
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.84 1.87–3.81 1.62–4.06 | 0.64 0.00–1.49 0.00–1.72 | 3.48 1.66–5.30 1.18–5.78 | 82% |
| Shots on target | 7.54 5.68–9.40 5.19–9.89 | 2.45 0.71–4.20 0.25–4.66 | 9.99 6.39–13.60 5.43–14.55 | 93% |
| Total shots | 19.23 15.31–23.16 14.22–24.25 | 7.43 3.87–11.00 2.91–11.96 | 26.67 19.18–34.15 17.13–36.20 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 13.18 10.23–16.12 9.41–16.95 | 4.12 1.43–6.80 0.70–7.53 | 17.29 11.67–22.92 10.10–24.48 | 98% |
| Blocked shots | 4.76 2.87–6.64 2.33–7.18 | 1.70 0.05–3.35 0.00–3.84 | 6.46 2.92–9.99 1.88–11.03 | 85% |
| Corners | 7.26 5.04–9.47 4.47–10.04 | 2.50 0.50–4.50 0.00–5.04 | 9.76 5.55–13.97 4.44–15.08 | 92% |
| Possession % | 63.12 56.33–69.91 54.66–71.58 | 36.09 29.30–42.87 27.63–44.54 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 618 551–685 532–703 | 352 286–419 268–436 | 970 836–1104 801–1139 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.75 78.72–86.78 77.42–88.07 | 69.91 65.59–74.24 64.28–75.55 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 10.91 8.07–13.75 7.31–14.50 | 12.78 9.84–15.73 9.09–16.47 | 23.69 17.91–29.47 16.40–30.98 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 2.24 1.08–3.40 0.78–3.71 | 1.15 0.06–2.25 0.00–2.54 | 3.40 1.14–5.65 0.56–6.24 | 62% 20% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 1.36 0.31–2.41 0.05–2.68 | 2.39 1.26–3.52 0.97–3.81 | 3.75 1.57–5.93 1.01–6.49 | 21% 19% 60% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% 13% |
| GK saves | 1.78 0.34–3.21 0.00–3.60 | 4.69 3.14–6.25 2.71–6.67 | 6.47 3.48–9.46 2.66–10.27 | 83% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.