Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 16·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
26%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.402.70safe0.33–2.270.54–2.250.87–4.52safer0.08–2.520.31–2.480.39–5.00
Shots on target
41%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.454.619.06safe2.59–6.312.87–6.355.46–12.67safer2.10–6.802.40–6.824.50–13.62
Total shots
55%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8112.6926.50safe9.89–17.749.12–16.2519.01–33.99safer8.80–18.838.16–17.2116.96–36.04
Shots in box
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction8.218.4616.67safe5.26–11.155.78–11.1411.04–22.29safer4.43–11.985.04–11.889.48–23.86
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.663.427.08safe1.78–5.551.76–5.073.55–10.62safer1.24–6.091.27–5.562.51–11.65
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.014.649.66safe2.80–7.232.64–6.645.45–13.87safer2.23–7.802.11–7.184.34–14.98
Possession %
36%
60%
homeawayprediction47.6852.83safe40.89–54.4746.04–59.61safer39.22–56.1444.37–61.28
Passes
37%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction438479917safe371–505412–545783–1050safer353–523395–563747–1086
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction75.6479.26safe71.61–79.6774.94–83.59safer70.32–80.9673.63–84.90
Fouls
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3714.0026.38safe9.54–15.2111.06–16.9520.59–32.16safer8.78–15.9710.31–17.7019.09–33.66
Offsides
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.352.81safe0.30–2.620.26–2.450.56–5.07safer0.00–2.920.00–2.730.00–5.66
Yellow cards
43%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.752.625.37safe1.70–3.801.49–3.753.19–7.55safer1.44–4.071.20–4.042.64–8.11
Red cards
13%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.120.28safe0.00–0.320.00–0.300.00–0.62safer0.00–0.470.00–0.440.00–0.91
GK saves
42%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.046.12safe1.64–4.511.48–4.603.12–9.11safer1.25–4.901.06–5.022.31–9.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.33–2.27 0.08–2.52 | 1.40 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.48 | 2.70 0.87–4.52 0.39–5.00 | 35% 26% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.45 2.59–6.31 2.10–6.80 | 4.61 2.87–6.35 2.40–6.82 | 9.06 5.46–12.67 4.50–13.62 | 41% 13% 45% |
| Total shots | 13.81 9.89–17.74 8.80–18.83 | 12.69 9.12–16.25 8.16–17.21 | 26.50 19.01–33.99 16.96–36.04 | 55% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.21 5.26–11.15 4.43–11.98 | 8.46 5.78–11.14 5.04–11.88 | 16.67 11.04–22.29 9.48–23.86 | 43% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 1.78–5.55 1.24–6.09 | 3.42 1.76–5.07 1.27–5.56 | 7.08 3.55–10.62 2.51–11.65 | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 5.01 2.80–7.23 2.23–7.80 | 4.64 2.64–6.64 2.11–7.18 | 9.66 5.45–13.87 4.34–14.98 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 47.68 40.89–54.47 39.22–56.14 | 52.83 46.04–59.61 44.37–61.28 | — | 36% 60% |
| Passes | 438 371–505 353–523 | 479 412–545 395–563 | 917 783–1050 747–1086 | 37% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.64 71.61–79.67 70.32–80.96 | 79.26 74.94–83.59 73.63–84.90 | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 12.37 9.54–15.21 8.78–15.97 | 14.00 11.06–16.95 10.31–17.70 | 26.38 20.59–32.16 19.09–33.66 | 34% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.30–2.62 0.00–2.92 | 1.35 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.73 | 2.81 0.56–5.07 0.00–5.66 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.75 1.70–3.80 1.44–4.07 | 2.62 1.49–3.75 1.20–4.04 | 5.37 3.19–7.55 2.64–8.11 | 43% 18% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.28 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.91 | 13% 77% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.64–4.51 1.25–4.90 | 3.04 1.48–4.60 1.06–5.02 | 6.12 3.12–9.11 2.31–9.92 | 42% 16% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.