Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 16·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
28%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.182.42safe0.27–2.210.33–2.040.60–4.24safer0.02–2.460.10–2.260.12–4.72
Shots on target
55%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.633.728.35safe2.77–6.491.98–5.474.75–11.96safer2.28–6.981.51–5.933.79–12.91
Total shots
63%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7311.5325.26safe9.81–17.667.96–15.0917.77–32.74safer8.72–18.757.00–16.0515.72–34.80
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.597.6116.20safe5.65–11.544.93–10.2910.58–21.83safer4.82–12.374.19–11.039.01–23.39
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.603.386.98safe1.72–5.481.73–5.043.45–10.52safer1.17–6.031.24–5.532.41–11.55
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.054.369.41safe2.83–7.262.36–6.365.20–13.62safer2.26–7.831.83–6.904.09–14.73
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.0751.82safe41.28–54.8645.04–58.61safer39.61–56.5343.37–60.28
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction453472925safe386–520405–538791–1058safer368–539388–555755–1094
Pass accuracy %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction71.8175.82safe67.78–75.8471.50–80.15safer66.49–77.1470.19–81.46
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3712.7125.08safe9.53–15.219.77–15.6619.30–30.87safer8.78–15.969.02–16.4117.80–32.37
Offsides
48%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.443.32safe0.72–3.040.35–2.541.07–5.57safer0.42–3.340.06–2.820.48–6.16
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.134.21safe1.03–3.131.00–3.262.03–6.38safer0.76–3.390.71–3.551.47–6.94
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.110.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.85
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.513.205.71safe1.08–3.951.64–4.762.72–8.71safer0.69–4.341.22–5.181.91–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.18 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.26 | 2.42 0.60–4.24 0.12–4.72 | 38% 28% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.77–6.49 2.28–6.98 | 3.72 1.98–5.47 1.51–5.93 | 8.35 4.75–11.96 3.79–12.91 | 55% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 13.73 9.81–17.66 8.72–18.75 | 11.53 7.96–15.09 7.00–16.05 | 25.26 17.77–32.74 15.72–34.80 | 63% 29% |
| Shots in box | 8.59 5.65–11.54 4.82–12.37 | 7.61 4.93–10.29 4.19–11.03 | 16.20 10.58–21.83 9.01–23.39 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 1.72–5.48 1.17–6.03 | 3.38 1.73–5.04 1.24–5.53 | 6.98 3.45–10.52 2.41–11.55 | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.83–7.26 2.26–7.83 | 4.36 2.36–6.36 1.83–6.90 | 9.41 5.20–13.62 4.09–14.73 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 48.07 41.28–54.86 39.61–56.53 | 51.82 45.04–58.61 43.37–60.28 | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 453 386–520 368–539 | 472 405–538 388–555 | 925 791–1058 755–1094 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.81 67.78–75.84 66.49–77.14 | 75.82 71.50–80.15 70.19–81.46 | — | 28% 67% |
| Fouls | 12.37 9.53–15.21 8.78–15.96 | 12.71 9.77–15.66 9.02–16.41 | 25.08 19.30–30.87 17.80–32.37 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 1.44 0.35–2.54 0.06–2.82 | 3.32 1.07–5.57 0.48–6.16 | 48% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.76–3.39 | 2.13 1.00–3.26 0.71–3.55 | 4.21 2.03–6.38 1.47–6.94 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.51 1.08–3.95 0.69–4.34 | 3.20 1.64–4.76 1.22–5.18 | 5.71 2.72–8.71 1.91–9.52 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.