Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 16·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
28%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.172.36safe0.22–2.160.31–2.020.53–4.18safer0.00–2.410.08–2.250.05–4.66
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.143.777.91safe2.27–6.002.03–5.524.31–11.52safer1.78–6.491.57–5.983.35–12.47
Total shots
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7110.7824.49safe9.79–17.647.21–14.3417.00–31.98safer8.70–18.736.25–15.3014.95–34.03
Shots in box
57%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction7.776.6014.36safe4.82–10.713.92–9.288.74–19.99safer3.99–11.543.18–10.027.17–21.55
Blocked shots
54%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.522.776.29safe1.63–5.401.12–4.422.75–9.82safer1.09–5.940.62–4.911.71–10.86
Corners
48%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.654.268.92safe2.44–6.872.26–6.264.70–13.13safer1.87–7.441.73–6.803.60–14.24
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction47.7352.55safe40.94–54.5245.77–59.34safer39.27–56.1944.10–61.01
Passes
37%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction395434829safe327–462368–500695–962safer309–480350–518659–998
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction67.4771.80safe63.44–71.5067.48–76.13safer62.15–72.7966.17–77.44
Fouls
47%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4714.4028.87safe11.63–17.3111.46–17.3523.09–34.66safer10.88–18.0610.71–18.1021.59–36.16
Offsides
26%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.402.043.44safe0.24–2.560.95–3.131.19–5.70safer0.00–2.860.66–3.420.60–6.29
Yellow cards
38%
19%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.342.504.83safe1.29–3.391.37–3.632.66–7.01safer1.02–3.651.08–3.922.10–7.57
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.140.24safe0.00–0.270.00–0.320.00–0.59safer0.00–0.420.00–0.460.00–0.87
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.602.945.53safe1.16–4.031.38–4.492.54–8.53safer0.77–4.420.96–4.921.73–9.34
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.22–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 1.17 0.31–2.02 0.08–2.25 | 2.36 0.53–4.18 0.05–4.66 | 37% 28% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.27–6.00 1.78–6.49 | 3.77 2.03–5.52 1.57–5.98 | 7.91 4.31–11.52 3.35–12.47 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.71 9.79–17.64 8.70–18.73 | 10.78 7.21–14.34 6.25–15.30 | 24.49 17.00–31.98 14.95–34.03 | 69% 24% |
| Shots in box | 7.77 4.82–10.71 3.99–11.54 | 6.60 3.92–9.28 3.18–10.02 | 14.36 8.74–19.99 7.17–21.55 | 57% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 3.52 1.63–5.40 1.09–5.94 | 2.77 1.12–4.42 0.62–4.91 | 6.29 2.75–9.82 1.71–10.86 | 54% 16% 31% |
| Corners | 4.65 2.44–6.87 1.87–7.44 | 4.26 2.26–6.26 1.73–6.80 | 8.92 4.70–13.13 3.60–14.24 | 48% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 47.73 40.94–54.52 39.27–56.19 | 52.55 45.77–59.34 44.10–61.01 | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 395 327–462 309–480 | 434 368–500 350–518 | 829 695–962 659–998 | 37% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.47 63.44–71.50 62.15–72.79 | 71.80 67.48–76.13 66.17–77.44 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 14.47 11.63–17.31 10.88–18.06 | 14.40 11.46–17.35 10.71–18.10 | 28.87 23.09–34.66 21.59–36.16 | 47% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.40 0.24–2.56 0.00–2.86 | 2.04 0.95–3.13 0.66–3.42 | 3.44 1.19–5.70 0.60–6.29 | 26% 21% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 2.34 1.29–3.39 1.02–3.65 | 2.50 1.37–3.63 1.08–3.92 | 4.83 2.66–7.01 2.10–7.57 | 38% 19% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.16–4.03 0.77–4.42 | 2.94 1.38–4.49 0.96–4.92 | 5.53 2.54–8.53 1.73–9.34 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+