Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 16·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
27%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.242.46safe0.25–2.190.38–2.090.64–4.28safer0.00–2.440.15–2.320.16–4.76
Shots on target
48%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.053.667.71safe2.19–5.911.92–5.404.10–11.31safer1.70–6.401.45–5.873.15–12.27
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8311.5524.38safe8.91–16.767.99–15.1116.89–31.87safer7.81–17.857.03–16.0714.84–33.92
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction7.907.4115.31safe4.95–10.844.73–10.109.69–20.93safer4.12–11.674.00–10.838.12–22.50
Blocked shots
53%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.442.736.17safe1.56–5.321.07–4.382.63–9.70safer1.01–5.870.58–4.871.60–10.74
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.124.749.85safe2.90–7.332.74–6.745.64–14.07safer2.33–7.902.20–7.274.53–15.17
Possession %
60%
36%
homeawayprediction52.4247.21safe45.63–59.2140.42–53.99safer43.96–60.8838.75–55.66
Passes
68%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction423366789safe356–491300–432656–923safer338–509282–450620–959
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction67.7668.56safe63.73–71.7964.23–72.88safer62.44–73.0862.92–74.19
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4914.1627.65safe10.65–16.3311.21–17.1021.87–33.43safer9.90–17.0810.46–17.8520.36–34.93
Offsides
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.583.04safe0.30–2.620.49–2.670.78–5.29safer0.00–2.920.20–2.960.19–5.88
Yellow cards
35%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.344.39safe1.00–3.101.21–3.472.21–6.57safer0.74–3.370.92–3.761.65–7.13
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.120.23safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.86
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.522.695.20safe1.08–3.951.13–4.242.21–8.19safer0.69–4.340.71–4.671.40–9.01
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.24 0.38–2.09 0.15–2.32 | 2.46 0.64–4.28 0.16–4.76 | 36% 27% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.05 2.19–5.91 1.70–6.40 | 3.66 1.92–5.40 1.45–5.87 | 7.71 4.10–11.31 3.15–12.27 | 48% 14% 37% |
| Total shots | 12.83 8.91–16.76 7.81–17.85 | 11.55 7.99–15.11 7.03–16.07 | 24.38 16.89–31.87 14.84–33.92 | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 7.90 4.95–10.84 4.12–11.67 | 7.41 4.73–10.10 4.00–10.83 | 15.31 9.69–20.93 8.12–22.50 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.44 1.56–5.32 1.01–5.87 | 2.73 1.07–4.38 0.58–4.87 | 6.17 2.63–9.70 1.60–10.74 | 53% 16% 31% |
| Corners | 5.12 2.90–7.33 2.33–7.90 | 4.74 2.74–6.74 2.20–7.27 | 9.85 5.64–14.07 4.53–15.17 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 52.42 45.63–59.21 43.96–60.88 | 47.21 40.42–53.99 38.75–55.66 | — | 60% 36% |
| Passes | 423 356–491 338–509 | 366 300–432 282–450 | 789 656–923 620–959 | 68% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.76 63.73–71.79 62.44–73.08 | 68.56 64.23–72.88 62.92–74.19 | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 13.49 10.65–16.33 9.90–17.08 | 14.16 11.21–17.10 10.46–17.85 | 27.65 21.87–33.43 20.36–34.93 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.30–2.62 0.00–2.92 | 1.58 0.49–2.67 0.20–2.96 | 3.04 0.78–5.29 0.19–5.88 | 35% 24% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 1.00–3.10 0.74–3.37 | 2.34 1.21–3.47 0.92–3.76 | 4.39 2.21–6.57 1.65–7.13 | 35% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.08–3.95 0.69–4.34 | 2.69 1.13–4.24 0.71–4.67 | 5.20 2.21–8.19 1.40–9.01 | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+