Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 16·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
68%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.100.792.89safe1.13–3.070.00–1.651.07–4.72safer0.88–3.320.00–1.870.59–5.20
Shots on target
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.432.799.22safe4.57–8.301.05–4.535.62–12.83safer4.08–8.780.58–5.004.66–13.78
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction18.908.5127.41safe14.98–22.834.95–12.0719.92–34.90safer13.88–23.923.99–13.0317.87–36.95
Shots in box
94%
homeawaytotalprediction11.604.8216.42safe8.65–14.542.14–7.5010.80–22.04safer7.82–15.371.41–8.249.23–23.61
Blocked shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction5.042.157.19safe3.15–6.920.50–3.803.65–10.72safer2.61–7.460.01–4.302.62–11.76
Corners
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.653.159.80safe4.44–8.861.15–5.155.59–14.01safer3.86–9.440.62–5.684.48–15.12
Possession %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction56.9442.38safe50.15–63.7335.60–49.17safer48.48–65.4033.93–50.84
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction484371855safe417–551305–438722–989safer399–569287–455686–1025
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction74.8969.42safe70.86–78.9265.10–73.75safer69.57–80.2163.79–75.06
Fouls
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3812.8127.18safe11.54–17.219.86–15.7521.40–32.97safer10.78–17.979.11–16.5019.90–34.47
Offsides
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.723.22safe0.34–2.660.63–2.810.97–5.48safer0.04–2.960.34–3.100.38–6.06
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.234.08safe0.81–2.901.10–3.361.91–6.26safer0.54–3.170.81–3.651.35–6.82
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.130.23safe0.00–0.260.00–0.320.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.450.00–0.86
GK saves
14%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction2.104.306.39safe0.66–3.532.74–5.853.40–9.38safer0.27–3.922.32–6.282.59–10.20
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.10 1.13–3.07 0.88–3.32 | 0.79 0.00–1.65 0.00–1.87 | 2.89 1.07–4.72 0.59–5.20 | 68% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.43 4.57–8.30 4.08–8.78 | 2.79 1.05–4.53 0.58–5.00 | 9.22 5.62–12.83 4.66–13.78 | 85% |
| Total shots | 18.90 14.98–22.83 13.88–23.92 | 8.51 4.95–12.07 3.99–13.03 | 27.41 19.92–34.90 17.87–36.95 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 11.60 8.65–14.54 7.82–15.37 | 4.82 2.14–7.50 1.41–8.24 | 16.42 10.80–22.04 9.23–23.61 | 94% |
| Blocked shots | 5.04 3.15–6.92 2.61–7.46 | 2.15 0.50–3.80 0.01–4.30 | 7.19 3.65–10.72 2.62–11.76 | 82% |
| Corners | 6.65 4.44–8.86 3.86–9.44 | 3.15 1.15–5.15 0.62–5.68 | 9.80 5.59–14.01 4.48–15.12 | 83% |
| Possession % | 56.94 50.15–63.73 48.48–65.40 | 42.38 35.60–49.17 33.93–50.84 | — | 79% 18% |
| Passes | 484 417–551 399–569 | 371 305–438 287–455 | 855 722–989 686–1025 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.89 70.86–78.92 69.57–80.21 | 69.42 65.10–73.75 63.79–75.06 | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 14.38 11.54–17.21 10.78–17.97 | 12.81 9.86–15.75 9.11–16.50 | 27.18 21.40–32.97 19.90–34.47 | 58% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.34–2.66 0.04–2.96 | 1.72 0.63–2.81 0.34–3.10 | 3.22 0.97–5.48 0.38–6.06 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.90 0.54–3.17 | 2.23 1.10–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 4.08 1.91–6.26 1.35–6.82 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.10 0.66–3.53 0.27–3.92 | 4.30 2.74–5.85 2.32–6.28 | 6.39 3.40–9.38 2.59–10.20 | 14% 75% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.