Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 17·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
27%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.212.48safe0.30–2.240.35–2.060.66–4.30safer0.05–2.490.12–2.290.18–4.78
Shots on target
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.374.128.49safe2.51–6.232.38–5.864.89–12.10safer2.02–6.721.91–6.333.93–13.05
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5612.7426.30safe9.64–17.499.17–16.3018.81–33.78safer8.54–18.588.21–17.2616.76–35.83
Shots in box
45%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction7.987.9315.91safe5.03–10.925.25–10.6110.28–21.53safer4.21–11.754.51–11.358.72–23.10
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.603.096.69safe1.72–5.481.44–4.743.16–10.23safer1.18–6.030.94–5.232.12–11.26
Corners
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.054.539.58safe2.84–7.272.53–6.535.37–13.79safer2.27–7.841.99–7.064.26–14.90
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.1244.42safe48.33–61.9137.64–51.21safer46.66–63.5835.97–52.88
Passes
85%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction455328784safe388–523262–395650–917safer370–541244–412614–953
Pass accuracy %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction71.9970.04safe67.96–76.0265.71–74.36safer66.67–77.3164.41–75.67
Fouls
39%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1714.1427.31safe10.33–16.0111.20–17.0921.53–33.10safer9.58–16.7710.45–17.8320.03–34.60
Offsides
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.322.72safe0.24–2.560.23–2.410.47–4.98safer0.00–2.860.00–2.700.00–5.57
Yellow cards
34%
18%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.222.614.83safe1.17–3.271.48–3.742.65–7.01safer0.90–3.531.19–4.032.09–7.57
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.140.23safe0.00–0.250.00–0.330.00–0.58safer0.00–0.400.00–0.460.00–0.86
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.015.99safe1.55–4.421.45–4.563.00–8.99safer1.16–4.811.03–4.992.19–9.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 1.21 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.29 | 2.48 0.66–4.30 0.18–4.78 | 38% 27% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.37 2.51–6.23 2.02–6.72 | 4.12 2.38–5.86 1.91–6.33 | 8.49 4.89–12.10 3.93–13.05 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Total shots | 13.56 9.64–17.49 8.54–18.58 | 12.74 9.17–16.30 8.21–17.26 | 26.30 18.81–33.78 16.76–35.83 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 7.98 5.03–10.92 4.21–11.75 | 7.93 5.25–10.61 4.51–11.35 | 15.91 10.28–21.53 8.72–23.10 | 45% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 1.72–5.48 1.18–6.03 | 3.09 1.44–4.74 0.94–5.23 | 6.69 3.16–10.23 2.12–11.26 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.84–7.27 2.27–7.84 | 4.53 2.53–6.53 1.99–7.06 | 9.58 5.37–13.79 4.26–14.90 | 50% 37% |
| Possession % | 55.12 48.33–61.91 46.66–63.58 | 44.42 37.64–51.21 35.97–52.88 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 455 388–523 370–541 | 328 262–395 244–412 | 784 650–917 614–953 | 85% 14% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.99 67.96–76.02 66.67–77.31 | 70.04 65.71–74.36 64.41–75.67 | — | 57% 38% |
| Fouls | 13.17 10.33–16.01 9.58–16.77 | 14.14 11.20–17.09 10.45–17.83 | 27.31 21.53–33.10 20.03–34.60 | 39% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.40 0.24–2.56 0.00–2.86 | 1.32 0.23–2.41 0.00–2.70 | 2.72 0.47–4.98 0.00–5.57 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.22 1.17–3.27 0.90–3.53 | 2.61 1.48–3.74 1.19–4.03 | 4.83 2.65–7.01 2.09–7.57 | 34% 18% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.99 1.55–4.42 1.16–4.81 | 3.01 1.45–4.56 1.03–4.99 | 5.99 3.00–8.99 2.19–9.80 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+