Predicted match statistics
Goals
15%
19%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction0.992.243.23safe0.02–1.961.39–3.101.41–5.06safer0.00–2.211.16–3.330.93–5.54
Shots on target
15%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction3.526.239.75safe1.66–5.394.49–7.976.15–13.36safer1.17–5.884.02–8.445.19–14.31
Total shots
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6915.9327.63safe7.77–15.6212.37–19.4920.14–35.11safer6.68–16.7111.41–20.4518.09–37.16
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.5911.0517.63safe3.64–9.538.37–13.7312.01–23.26safer2.81–10.367.63–14.4710.44–24.82
Blocked shots
25%
13%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.024.337.35safe1.13–4.902.68–5.993.81–10.88safer0.59–5.442.19–6.482.78–11.92
Corners
17%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction3.756.169.91safe1.54–5.964.16–8.165.70–14.12safer0.96–6.543.63–8.694.59–15.23
Possession %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction43.1357.84safe36.34–49.9251.05–64.62safer34.67–51.5949.38–66.29
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction397527924safe330–464460–593790–1057safer312–482443–611754–1093
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction69.3080.78safe65.27–73.3376.46–85.11safer63.98–74.6375.15–86.41
Fouls
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0310.4124.44safe11.20–16.877.46–13.3518.66–30.22safer10.44–17.636.71–14.1017.15–31.73
Offsides
26%
22%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.993.35safe0.20–2.520.89–3.081.09–5.60safer0.00–2.820.61–3.370.50–6.19
Yellow cards
50%
19%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.582.084.66safe1.53–3.630.95–3.212.48–6.84safer1.26–3.890.66–3.501.92–7.40
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.120.26safe0.00–0.300.00–0.310.00–0.61safer0.00–0.450.00–0.440.00–0.89
GK saves
63%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.892.526.41safe2.45–5.330.96–4.083.42–9.40safer2.07–5.710.54–4.502.60–10.21
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.02–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 2.24 1.39–3.10 1.16–3.33 | 3.23 1.41–5.06 0.93–5.54 | 15% 19% 66% |
| Shots on target | 3.52 1.66–5.39 1.17–5.88 | 6.23 4.49–7.97 4.02–8.44 | 9.75 6.15–13.36 5.19–14.31 | 15% 76% |
| Total shots | 11.69 7.77–15.62 6.68–16.71 | 15.93 12.37–19.49 11.41–20.45 | 27.63 20.14–35.11 18.09–37.16 | 18% 76% |
| Shots in box | 6.59 3.64–9.53 2.81–10.36 | 11.05 8.37–13.73 7.63–14.47 | 17.63 12.01–23.26 10.44–24.82 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.02 1.13–4.90 0.59–5.44 | 4.33 2.68–5.99 2.19–6.48 | 7.35 3.81–10.88 2.78–11.92 | 25% 13% 62% |
| Corners | 3.75 1.54–5.96 0.96–6.54 | 6.16 4.16–8.16 3.63–8.69 | 9.91 5.70–14.12 4.59–15.23 | 17% 73% |
| Possession % | 43.13 36.34–49.92 34.67–51.59 | 57.84 51.05–64.62 49.38–66.29 | — | 18% 79% |
| Passes | 397 330–464 312–482 | 527 460–593 443–611 | 924 790–1057 754–1093 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.30 65.27–73.33 63.98–74.63 | 80.78 76.46–85.11 75.15–86.41 | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 14.03 11.20–16.87 10.44–17.63 | 10.41 7.46–13.35 6.71–14.10 | 24.44 18.66–30.22 17.15–31.73 | 74% 20% |
| Offsides | 1.36 0.20–2.52 0.00–2.82 | 1.99 0.89–3.08 0.61–3.37 | 3.35 1.09–5.60 0.50–6.19 | 26% 22% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 2.58 1.53–3.63 1.26–3.89 | 2.08 0.95–3.21 0.66–3.50 | 4.66 2.48–6.84 1.92–7.40 | 50% 19% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.89 2.45–5.33 2.07–5.71 | 2.52 0.96–4.08 0.54–4.50 | 6.41 3.42–9.40 2.60–10.21 | 63% 14% 23% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+