Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
27%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.041.432.47safe0.07–2.010.57–2.280.65–4.29safer0.00–2.260.34–2.510.17–4.77
Shots on target
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.754.328.07safe1.89–5.622.58–6.064.47–11.68safer1.40–6.102.11–6.533.51–12.63
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2112.7724.98safe8.29–16.149.20–16.3317.49–32.47safer7.20–17.238.24–17.2915.44–34.52
Shots in box
30%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction7.048.6115.65safe4.10–9.985.93–11.2910.03–21.27safer3.27–10.815.19–12.038.46–22.84
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.583.717.29safe1.70–5.462.05–5.363.75–10.82safer1.15–6.011.56–5.852.72–11.86
Corners
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.524.448.96safe2.30–6.732.44–6.444.75–13.17safer1.73–7.301.91–6.983.64–14.28
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction48.9351.36safe42.14–55.7244.58–58.15safer40.47–57.3942.91–59.82
Passes
49%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction459462921safe392–526396–529787–1055safer374–544378–546752–1090
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction71.5473.44safe67.51–75.5769.11–77.76safer66.22–76.8667.81–79.07
Fouls
42%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9013.4926.39safe10.06–15.7410.55–16.4420.61–32.17safer9.30–16.499.80–17.1819.10–33.68
Offsides
33%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.693.15safe0.30–2.620.59–2.780.89–5.40safer0.00–2.920.30–3.070.30–5.99
Yellow cards
43%
19%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.372.214.58safe1.32–3.421.08–3.342.40–6.76safer1.06–3.690.79–3.631.85–7.32
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.090.25safe0.00–0.310.00–0.280.00–0.59safer0.00–0.460.00–0.410.00–0.88
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.832.695.51safe1.39–4.261.13–4.242.52–8.51safer1.00–4.650.71–4.671.71–9.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 0.07–2.01 0.00–2.26 | 1.43 0.57–2.28 0.34–2.51 | 2.47 0.65–4.29 0.17–4.77 | 28% 27% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.75 1.89–5.62 1.40–6.10 | 4.32 2.58–6.06 2.11–6.53 | 8.07 4.47–11.68 3.51–12.63 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Total shots | 12.21 8.29–16.14 7.20–17.23 | 12.77 9.20–16.33 8.24–17.29 | 24.98 17.49–32.47 15.44–34.52 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 7.04 4.10–9.98 3.27–10.81 | 8.61 5.93–11.29 5.19–12.03 | 15.65 10.03–21.27 8.46–22.84 | 30% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 3.58 1.70–5.46 1.15–6.01 | 3.71 2.05–5.36 1.56–5.85 | 7.29 3.75–10.82 2.72–11.86 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 4.52 2.30–6.73 1.73–7.30 | 4.44 2.44–6.44 1.91–6.98 | 8.96 4.75–13.17 3.64–14.28 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Possession % | 48.93 42.14–55.72 40.47–57.39 | 51.36 44.58–58.15 42.91–59.82 | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 459 392–526 374–544 | 462 396–529 378–546 | 921 787–1055 752–1090 | 49% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.54 67.51–75.57 66.22–76.86 | 73.44 69.11–77.76 67.81–79.07 | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 12.90 10.06–15.74 9.30–16.49 | 13.49 10.55–16.44 9.80–17.18 | 26.39 20.61–32.17 19.10–33.68 | 42% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.30–2.62 0.00–2.92 | 1.69 0.59–2.78 0.30–3.07 | 3.15 0.89–5.40 0.30–5.99 | 33% 23% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.37 1.32–3.42 1.06–3.69 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 4.58 2.40–6.76 1.85–7.32 | 43% 19% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.39–4.26 1.00–4.65 | 2.69 1.13–4.24 0.71–4.67 | 5.51 2.52–8.51 1.71–9.32 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.