Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
27%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.152.50safe0.38–2.320.30–2.000.68–4.33safer0.13–2.570.07–2.230.20–4.81
Shots on target
56%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.803.828.62safe2.93–6.662.08–5.575.01–12.22safer2.44–7.151.62–6.034.06–13.18
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0111.1425.15safe10.09–17.947.57–14.7017.66–32.63safer9.00–19.036.61–15.6615.61–34.69
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.567.1716.73safe6.62–12.504.49–9.8511.10–22.35safer5.79–13.333.75–10.599.54–23.92
Blocked shots
54%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.562.786.34safe1.68–5.441.13–4.442.81–9.88safer1.14–5.990.64–4.931.77–10.92
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.409.75safe3.13–7.562.40–6.405.53–13.96safer2.56–8.131.87–6.934.43–15.07
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.1652.64safe40.37–53.9545.86–59.43safer38.70–55.6244.19–61.10
Passes
36%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction407450857safe340–474384–517724–991safer322–492366–534688–1027
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction65.8270.29safe61.79–69.8565.96–74.61safer60.50–71.1464.65–75.92
Fouls
49%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7512.4325.18safe9.91–15.599.49–15.3819.40–30.97safer9.16–16.348.74–16.1317.90–32.47
Offsides
54%
22%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.243.18safe0.78–3.100.15–2.330.93–5.43safer0.48–3.400.00–2.620.34–6.02
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.234.03safe0.75–2.851.10–3.361.85–6.21safer0.48–3.110.81–3.651.29–6.76
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.085.70safe1.18–4.051.53–4.642.71–8.69safer0.79–4.441.10–5.061.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.15 0.30–2.00 0.07–2.23 | 2.50 0.68–4.33 0.20–4.81 | 41% 27% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.80 2.93–6.66 2.44–7.15 | 3.82 2.08–5.57 1.62–6.03 | 8.62 5.01–12.22 4.06–13.18 | 56% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 14.01 10.09–17.94 9.00–19.03 | 11.14 7.57–14.70 6.61–15.66 | 25.15 17.66–32.63 15.61–34.69 | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 9.56 6.62–12.50 5.79–13.33 | 7.17 4.49–9.85 3.75–10.59 | 16.73 11.10–22.35 9.54–23.92 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.56 1.68–5.44 1.14–5.99 | 2.78 1.13–4.44 0.64–4.93 | 6.34 2.81–9.88 1.77–10.92 | 54% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.35 3.13–7.56 2.56–8.13 | 4.40 2.40–6.40 1.87–6.93 | 9.75 5.53–13.96 4.43–15.07 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 47.16 40.37–53.95 38.70–55.62 | 52.64 45.86–59.43 44.19–61.10 | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 407 340–474 322–492 | 450 384–517 366–534 | 857 724–991 688–1027 | 36% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.82 61.79–69.85 60.50–71.14 | 70.29 65.96–74.61 64.65–75.92 | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 12.75 9.91–15.59 9.16–16.34 | 12.43 9.49–15.38 8.74–16.13 | 25.18 19.40–30.97 17.90–32.47 | 49% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.78–3.10 0.48–3.40 | 1.24 0.15–2.33 0.00–2.62 | 3.18 0.93–5.43 0.34–6.02 | 54% 22% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.85 0.48–3.11 | 2.23 1.10–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 4.03 1.85–6.21 1.29–6.76 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 3.08 1.53–4.64 1.10–5.06 | 5.70 2.71–8.69 1.90–9.51 | 34% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+