Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 17·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.202.53safe0.36–2.290.35–2.060.70–4.35safer0.10–2.540.12–2.290.22–4.83
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.088.54safe2.60–6.332.33–5.824.94–12.15safer2.11–6.821.87–6.283.98–13.10
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3311.8225.14safe9.40–17.258.25–15.3817.65–32.63safer8.31–18.347.29–16.3415.60–34.68
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction8.327.5415.86safe5.38–11.264.85–10.2210.23–21.48safer4.55–12.094.12–10.958.67–23.05
Blocked shots
54%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.532.806.33safe1.65–5.421.14–4.452.79–9.87safer1.11–5.960.65–4.941.76–10.90
Corners
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.334.8310.16safe3.12–7.552.83–6.835.95–14.37safer2.54–8.122.29–7.364.84–15.48
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction52.0847.03safe45.29–58.8740.25–53.82safer43.62–60.5438.58–55.49
Passes
68%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction446390836safe379–513324–457703–970safer361–532306–474667–1006
Pass accuracy %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction72.6172.39safe68.58–76.6468.06–76.71safer67.29–77.9466.75–78.02
Fouls
16%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5516.3527.90safe8.72–14.3913.41–19.3022.12–33.69safer7.96–15.1512.66–20.0420.62–35.19
Offsides
52%
22%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.403.43safe0.86–3.180.31–2.501.17–5.68safer0.56–3.480.02–2.790.58–6.27
Yellow cards
22%
17%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.934.70safe0.73–2.821.80–4.052.52–6.88safer0.46–3.091.51–4.351.97–7.44
Red cards
76%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.170.29safe0.00–0.280.00–0.360.00–0.64safer0.00–0.430.00–0.490.00–0.92
GK saves
38%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.783.025.80safe1.34–4.211.47–4.582.81–8.79safer0.95–4.601.04–5.001.99–9.60
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.36–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.20 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.29 | 2.53 0.70–4.35 0.22–4.83 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.46 2.60–6.33 2.11–6.82 | 4.08 2.33–5.82 1.87–6.28 | 8.54 4.94–12.15 3.98–13.10 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.33 9.40–17.25 8.31–18.34 | 11.82 8.25–15.38 7.29–16.34 | 25.14 17.65–32.63 15.60–34.68 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 8.32 5.38–11.26 4.55–12.09 | 7.54 4.85–10.22 4.12–10.95 | 15.86 10.23–21.48 8.67–23.05 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 3.53 1.65–5.42 1.11–5.96 | 2.80 1.14–4.45 0.65–4.94 | 6.33 2.79–9.87 1.76–10.90 | 54% 16% 31% |
| Corners | 5.33 3.12–7.55 2.54–8.12 | 4.83 2.83–6.83 2.29–7.36 | 10.16 5.95–14.37 4.84–15.48 | 50% 38% |
| Possession % | 52.08 45.29–58.87 43.62–60.54 | 47.03 40.25–53.82 38.58–55.49 | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 446 379–513 361–532 | 390 324–457 306–474 | 836 703–970 667–1006 | 68% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.61 68.58–76.64 67.29–77.94 | 72.39 68.06–76.71 66.75–78.02 | — | 49% 46% |
| Fouls | 11.55 8.72–14.39 7.96–15.15 | 16.35 13.41–19.30 12.66–20.04 | 27.90 22.12–33.69 20.62–35.19 | 16% 79% |
| Offsides | 2.02 0.86–3.18 0.56–3.48 | 1.40 0.31–2.50 0.02–2.79 | 3.43 1.17–5.68 0.58–6.27 | 52% 22% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.73–2.82 0.46–3.09 | 2.93 1.80–4.05 1.51–4.35 | 4.70 2.52–6.88 1.97–7.44 | 22% 17% 61% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.36 0.00–0.49 | 0.29 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.92 | 76% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.34–4.21 0.95–4.60 | 3.02 1.47–4.58 1.04–5.00 | 5.80 2.81–8.79 1.99–9.60 | 38% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.