Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 17·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
24%
26%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction0.971.542.52safe0.01–1.940.69–2.400.69–4.34safer0.00–2.190.46–2.620.21–4.82
Shots on target
22%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.284.928.20safe1.41–5.143.18–6.664.59–11.80safer0.92–5.632.71–7.133.64–12.76
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3113.2925.60safe8.38–16.239.73–16.8518.11–33.08safer7.29–17.328.77–17.8116.06–35.13
Shots in box
22%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction6.629.1615.78safe3.68–9.566.48–11.8410.16–21.40safer2.85–10.395.74–12.588.59–22.97
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.113.056.16safe1.23–4.991.40–4.702.62–9.69safer0.68–5.540.90–5.191.59–10.73
Corners
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.714.749.45safe2.49–6.922.74–6.745.24–13.66safer1.92–7.492.21–7.284.13–14.77
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction46.8753.14safe40.08–53.6646.36–59.93safer38.41–55.3344.69–61.60
Passes
33%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction420473893safe353–487407–540759–1027safer334–505389–557724–1063
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction70.3674.87safe66.33–74.3970.55–79.19safer65.04–75.6869.24–80.50
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2712.6124.88safe9.44–15.119.66–15.5519.10–30.66safer8.68–15.878.91–16.3017.59–32.17
Offsides
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.723.22safe0.33–2.660.63–2.810.96–5.47safer0.03–2.960.34–3.100.37–6.06
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.224.03safe0.76–2.861.09–3.351.85–6.21safer0.50–3.130.80–3.641.30–6.77
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.23safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.86
GK saves
52%
17%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.022.385.40safe1.59–4.460.82–3.932.41–8.39safer1.20–4.850.40–4.361.59–9.20
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.97 0.01–1.94 0.00–2.19 | 1.54 0.69–2.40 0.46–2.62 | 2.52 0.69–4.34 0.21–4.82 | 24% 26% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.28 1.41–5.14 0.92–5.63 | 4.92 3.18–6.66 2.71–7.13 | 8.20 4.59–11.80 3.64–12.76 | 22% 65% |
| Total shots | 12.31 8.38–16.23 7.29–17.32 | 13.29 9.73–16.85 8.77–17.81 | 25.60 18.11–33.08 16.06–35.13 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 6.62 3.68–9.56 2.85–10.39 | 9.16 6.48–11.84 5.74–12.58 | 15.78 10.16–21.40 8.59–22.97 | 22% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 3.11 1.23–4.99 0.68–5.54 | 3.05 1.40–4.70 0.90–5.19 | 6.16 2.62–9.69 1.59–10.73 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 4.71 2.49–6.92 1.92–7.49 | 4.74 2.74–6.74 2.21–7.28 | 9.45 5.24–13.66 4.13–14.77 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Possession % | 46.87 40.08–53.66 38.41–55.33 | 53.14 46.36–59.93 44.69–61.60 | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 420 353–487 334–505 | 473 407–540 389–557 | 893 759–1027 724–1063 | 33% 67% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.36 66.33–74.39 65.04–75.68 | 74.87 70.55–79.19 69.24–80.50 | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 12.27 9.44–15.11 8.68–15.87 | 12.61 9.66–15.55 8.91–16.30 | 24.88 19.10–30.66 17.59–32.17 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.49 0.33–2.66 0.03–2.96 | 1.72 0.63–2.81 0.34–3.10 | 3.22 0.96–5.47 0.37–6.06 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.86 0.50–3.13 | 2.22 1.09–3.35 0.80–3.64 | 4.03 1.85–6.21 1.30–6.77 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.02 1.59–4.46 1.20–4.85 | 2.38 0.82–3.93 0.40–4.36 | 5.40 2.41–8.39 1.59–9.20 | 52% 17% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.