Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 17·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
28%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.102.36safe0.29–2.230.25–1.960.54–4.18safer0.04–2.480.02–2.190.06–4.66
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.193.707.89safe2.32–6.051.96–5.444.28–11.49safer1.83–6.541.49–5.913.33–12.45
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3412.0124.35safe8.41–16.268.45–15.5716.86–31.84safer7.32–17.357.49–16.5314.81–33.89
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction7.627.4215.05safe4.68–10.574.74–10.109.42–20.67safer3.85–11.404.00–10.847.86–22.24
Blocked shots
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.213.066.27safe1.32–5.091.41–4.722.74–9.81safer0.78–5.630.92–5.211.70–10.84
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.674.268.93safe2.46–6.882.26–6.264.71–13.14safer1.88–7.461.72–6.793.61–14.25
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.7245.71safe47.93–61.5138.92–52.49safer46.26–63.1837.25–54.16
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction444378822safe376–511311–444688–955safer358–529294–462652–991
Pass accuracy %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction72.3472.01safe68.31–76.3767.69–76.34safer67.02–77.6666.38–77.65
Fouls
49%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3214.9630.28safe12.49–18.1612.02–17.9024.50–36.07safer11.73–18.9211.27–18.6523.00–37.57
Offsides
51%
22%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.353.27safe0.75–3.070.26–2.441.01–5.52safer0.45–3.380.00–2.730.42–6.11
Yellow cards
34%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.695.00safe1.26–3.361.56–3.822.82–7.18safer1.00–3.631.27–4.112.27–7.74
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.140.27safe0.00–0.290.00–0.330.00–0.62safer0.00–0.440.00–0.460.00–0.90
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.632.955.58safe1.19–4.061.40–4.512.59–8.57safer0.80–4.450.97–4.931.78–9.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.29–2.23 0.04–2.48 | 1.10 0.25–1.96 0.02–2.19 | 2.36 0.54–4.18 0.06–4.66 | 40% 28% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.19 2.32–6.05 1.83–6.54 | 3.70 1.96–5.44 1.49–5.91 | 7.89 4.28–11.49 3.33–12.45 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 12.34 8.41–16.26 7.32–17.35 | 12.01 8.45–15.57 7.49–16.53 | 24.35 16.86–31.84 14.81–33.89 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 7.62 4.68–10.57 3.85–11.40 | 7.42 4.74–10.10 4.00–10.84 | 15.05 9.42–20.67 7.86–22.24 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.21 1.32–5.09 0.78–5.63 | 3.06 1.41–4.72 0.92–5.21 | 6.27 2.74–9.81 1.70–10.84 | 44% 16% 40% |
| Corners | 4.67 2.46–6.88 1.88–7.46 | 4.26 2.26–6.26 1.72–6.79 | 8.93 4.71–13.14 3.61–14.25 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 54.72 47.93–61.51 46.26–63.18 | 45.71 38.92–52.49 37.25–54.16 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 444 376–511 358–529 | 378 311–444 294–462 | 822 688–955 652–991 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.34 68.31–76.37 67.02–77.66 | 72.01 67.69–76.34 66.38–77.65 | — | 49% 46% |
| Fouls | 15.32 12.49–18.16 11.73–18.92 | 14.96 12.02–17.90 11.27–18.65 | 30.28 24.50–36.07 23.00–37.57 | 49% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.91 0.75–3.07 0.45–3.38 | 1.35 0.26–2.44 0.00–2.73 | 3.27 1.01–5.52 0.42–6.11 | 51% 22% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 2.31 1.26–3.36 1.00–3.63 | 2.69 1.56–3.82 1.27–4.11 | 5.00 2.82–7.18 2.27–7.74 | 34% 18% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.63 1.19–4.06 0.80–4.45 | 2.95 1.40–4.51 0.97–4.93 | 5.58 2.59–8.57 1.78–9.38 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+