Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 17·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
80%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction2.610.623.24safe1.65–3.580.00–1.481.41–5.06safer1.40–3.830.00–1.700.93–5.54
Shots on target
92%
homeawaytotalprediction6.882.329.20safe5.02–8.740.58–4.065.60–12.81safer4.53–9.230.11–4.534.64–13.76
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction19.777.4827.25safe15.84–23.693.92–11.0419.76–34.73safer14.75–24.782.96–12.0017.71–36.78
Shots in box
98%
homeawaytotalprediction12.664.3216.98safe9.72–15.601.64–7.0011.35–22.60safer8.89–16.430.90–7.749.79–24.17
Blocked shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction4.651.596.24safe2.77–6.530.00–3.242.70–9.77safer2.23–7.080.00–3.731.67–10.81
Corners
93%
homeawaytotalprediction7.792.6610.45safe5.58–10.010.66–4.666.24–14.67safer5.01–10.580.13–5.195.13–15.77
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction64.7434.94safe57.95–71.5328.15–41.72safer56.28–73.2026.48–43.39
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction607327934safe539–674261–394800–1068safer521–692244–411765–1104
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction82.6468.93safe78.61–86.6764.60–73.25safer77.31–87.9663.29–74.56
Fouls
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7614.1826.93safe9.92–15.5911.23–17.1221.15–32.71safer9.16–16.3510.48–17.8719.64–34.22
Offsides
61%
21%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.081.063.14safe0.92–3.240.00–2.150.89–5.39safer0.62–3.540.00–2.440.30–5.98
Yellow cards
27%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.434.13safe0.65–2.751.30–3.561.95–6.31safer0.39–3.021.01–3.851.40–6.87
Red cards
81%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.150.22safe0.00–0.230.00–0.340.00–0.57safer0.00–0.380.00–0.470.00–0.85
GK saves
79%
homeawaytotalprediction1.754.165.91safe0.32–3.192.61–5.722.92–8.91safer0.00–3.582.18–6.142.11–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.61 1.65–3.58 1.40–3.83 | 0.62 0.00–1.48 0.00–1.70 | 3.24 1.41–5.06 0.93–5.54 | 80% 13% |
| Shots on target | 6.88 5.02–8.74 4.53–9.23 | 2.32 0.58–4.06 0.11–4.53 | 9.20 5.60–12.81 4.64–13.76 | 92% |
| Total shots | 19.77 15.84–23.69 14.75–24.78 | 7.48 3.92–11.04 2.96–12.00 | 27.25 19.76–34.73 17.71–36.78 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 12.66 9.72–15.60 8.89–16.43 | 4.32 1.64–7.00 0.90–7.74 | 16.98 11.35–22.60 9.79–24.17 | 98% |
| Blocked shots | 4.65 2.77–6.53 2.23–7.08 | 1.59 0.00–3.24 0.00–3.73 | 6.24 2.70–9.77 1.67–10.81 | 85% |
| Corners | 7.79 5.58–10.01 5.01–10.58 | 2.66 0.66–4.66 0.13–5.19 | 10.45 6.24–14.67 5.13–15.77 | 93% |
| Possession % | 64.74 57.95–71.53 56.28–73.20 | 34.94 28.15–41.72 26.48–43.39 | — | 96% |
| Passes | 607 539–674 521–692 | 327 261–394 244–411 | 934 800–1068 765–1104 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.64 78.61–86.67 77.31–87.96 | 68.93 64.60–73.25 63.29–74.56 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 12.76 9.92–15.59 9.16–16.35 | 14.18 11.23–17.12 10.48–17.87 | 26.93 21.15–32.71 19.64–34.22 | 36% 57% |
| Offsides | 2.08 0.92–3.24 0.62–3.54 | 1.06 0.00–2.15 0.00–2.44 | 3.14 0.89–5.39 0.30–5.98 | 61% 21% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.75 0.39–3.02 | 2.43 1.30–3.56 1.01–3.85 | 4.13 1.95–6.31 1.40–6.87 | 27% 19% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% 13% |
| GK saves | 1.75 0.32–3.19 0.00–3.58 | 4.16 2.61–5.72 2.18–6.14 | 5.91 2.92–8.91 2.11–9.72 | 79% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.