Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 18·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
17%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction0.912.403.31safe0.00–1.881.55–3.261.49–5.14safer0.00–2.131.32–3.491.01–5.62
Shots on target
14%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction3.606.5310.13safe1.74–5.464.78–8.276.52–13.73safer1.25–5.954.32–8.735.57–14.69
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3217.0428.37safe7.40–15.2513.48–20.6120.88–35.85safer6.31–16.3412.52–21.5718.83–37.90
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction6.0811.1617.24safe3.13–9.028.48–13.8411.61–22.86safer2.30–9.857.74–14.5810.05–24.43
Blocked shots
17%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction2.794.857.64safe0.91–4.673.20–6.504.11–11.18safer0.36–5.222.71–7.003.07–12.21
Corners
17%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction3.726.259.97safe1.50–5.934.25–8.255.76–14.18safer0.93–6.503.72–8.794.65–15.29
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction39.9459.95safe33.14–46.7353.16–66.73safer31.48–48.3951.49–68.41
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction381540921safe314–448474–607788–1055safer296–467456–624752–1091
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction68.5081.20safe64.47–72.5376.88–85.53safer63.18–73.8275.57–86.84
Fouls
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0711.8325.90safe11.23–16.908.89–14.7820.12–31.68safer10.47–17.668.14–15.5318.61–33.19
Offsides
35%
25%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.482.85safe0.21–2.530.39–2.570.60–5.11safer0.00–2.830.10–2.860.01–5.69
Yellow cards
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.242.044.29safe1.19–3.290.91–3.172.11–6.46safer0.93–3.560.62–3.461.55–7.02
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.110.24safe0.00–0.290.00–0.300.00–0.59safer0.00–0.440.00–0.430.00–0.87
GK saves
70%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.362.456.81safe2.92–5.790.90–4.013.82–9.80safer2.53–6.180.47–4.433.00–10.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.91 0.00–1.88 0.00–2.13 | 2.40 1.55–3.26 1.32–3.49 | 3.31 1.49–5.14 1.01–5.62 | 17% 70% |
| Shots on target | 3.60 1.74–5.46 1.25–5.95 | 6.53 4.78–8.27 4.32–8.73 | 10.13 6.52–13.73 5.57–14.69 | 14% 78% |
| Total shots | 11.32 7.40–15.25 6.31–16.34 | 17.04 13.48–20.61 12.52–21.57 | 28.37 20.88–35.85 18.83–37.90 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 6.08 3.13–9.02 2.30–9.85 | 11.16 8.48–13.84 7.74–14.58 | 17.24 11.61–22.86 10.05–24.43 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 2.79 0.91–4.67 0.36–5.22 | 4.85 3.20–6.50 2.71–7.00 | 7.64 4.11–11.18 3.07–12.21 | 17% 71% |
| Corners | 3.72 1.50–5.93 0.93–6.50 | 6.25 4.25–8.25 3.72–8.79 | 9.97 5.76–14.18 4.65–15.29 | 17% 74% |
| Possession % | 39.94 33.14–46.73 31.48–48.39 | 59.95 53.16–66.73 51.49–68.41 | — | 87% |
| Passes | 381 314–448 296–467 | 540 474–607 456–624 | 921 788–1055 752–1091 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.50 64.47–72.53 63.18–73.82 | 81.20 76.88–85.53 75.57–86.84 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 14.07 11.23–16.90 10.47–17.66 | 11.83 8.89–14.78 8.14–15.53 | 25.90 20.12–31.68 18.61–33.19 | 63% 30% |
| Offsides | 1.37 0.21–2.53 0.00–2.83 | 1.48 0.39–2.57 0.10–2.86 | 2.85 0.60–5.11 0.01–5.69 | 35% 25% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.24 1.19–3.29 0.93–3.56 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 4.29 2.11–6.46 1.55–7.02 | 44% 20% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 4.36 2.92–5.79 2.53–6.18 | 2.45 0.90–4.01 0.47–4.43 | 6.81 3.82–9.80 3.00–10.61 | 70% 17% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.